- Mar 13, 2004
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I love finance it's my hobby. I am pretty boring, I don't like sports and going to the gym, or watching too many movies, but I like God and I like my family and when I have spare time I like watching finance. I am a perma bear. Basically that means I am bearish on the economy. I know every week our stock market reaches another all time high. But there are some underlying problems. In a last study I did on our bond payments that we make when we print new money. I realized that our bond interest payment go up every year on average. I was surprised to realize that in 30 years, our bond payments will be double what our current tax income as a nation is. Now realize that medicare and social security are roughly 1.5 trillion dollars a year. I think the 2020 tax income is about 3.6 trillion or something like that and our bond payments will be 2X what our 3.6 trillion is at over 6 trillion. Don't believe me? Well look at the graphic below. Now there is something you need to know about bonds. As bond yield goes down their premium goes up but as the yield starts to go up the rate on the bond also goes up. Since bonds have been in a bull market for the last forty years there hasn't been a problem paying bond holders. But now that the yields inverted in august, the bond market is on a weak basis now and yields are going to go up with the interest on them also going up. Bond peaked at 16% in the 80% and fell to about 1%, that is why many countries are exiting US bond holdings and exchanging them for gold. Note that as bond yields go up, the bond itself erodes in value. So if you are holding the bond, it's actual value with decrease. So your retirement in bonds will erode faster in a bond bear market, while in a bond bull market you would see steady gains, it will steadily erode now. (so a CASH SIP investment is safer until bonds normalize). So anyway the following graphic is about a 30 year forecast, but due to bonds becoming more expensive to service, exponentially speaking, I factored that in as a bout a 16 year market forecast, till total melt down. (do you have any ideas on how our country can last 16 years? Lets talk about it. Going on gold standard is one option, but lets talk about reducing costs, or healthcare reform, or whatever.
Here is the graphic:
View attachment 271912
Here is the graphic:
View attachment 271912
(click to enlarge)
Going on the gold standard will crash the economy sort of like going to bitcoin would crash the economy, due to restricting liquidity. But if they simply put like 1/1000 of 1$ worth of gold and pegged it to each dollar of fiat. That would get us in the door. Right now 1$ = 0.000635190 ounces of gold. So if we made like I said 1/1000 of that figure equal a dollar. Then we would need roughly 1.9 million ounces of gold to print 3 trillion dollars of money. According to the Bureau of the Fiscal Reserve, there are 147,341,858.382 ounces of gold in Fort Knox as of August 31, 2018. so 147 trillion ounces. So we have plenty of Gold to peg to money. So I don't see really a liquidity problem. If anything it may be hard initially to quantify the gold into denominations, 1,5,10,100 dollar increments. But build ten more US mints. Then it should be fine. That way when you go to the bank you can either get your cash or your gold. To me that is really the only way to do it. Going on the gold standard will double or triple the price of gold per ounce, and lessen the amount per dollar. But if you question the rates, you can always do gold dust. if Gold is always changing, have a automatic machine that puts out the proper ratio of gold dust in a ziplock bag for you, with the amount of ounces on it and current dollar rate to the penny. I believe gold going up will make the dollar weaker at least initially, but like I seen this year gold and the dollar were both going up. So that is technically possible when pegging them together that they will move more closely and not opposite.
other than getting rid of medicare and social security outright, and even then you are only buying yourself a few decades (at best).
Going on the gold standard will crash the economy sort of like going to bitcoin would crash the economy, due to restricting liquidity. But if they simply put like 1/1000 of 1$ worth of gold and pegged it to each dollar of fiat. That would get us in the door. Right now 1$ = 0.000635190 ounces of gold. So if we made like I said 1/1000 of that figure equal a dollar. Then we would need roughly 1.9 million ounces of gold to print 3 trillion dollars of money. According to the Bureau of the Fiscal Reserve, there are 147,341,858.382 ounces of gold in Fort Knox as of August 31, 2018. so 147 trillion ounces. So we have plenty of Gold to peg to money. So I don't see really a liquidity problem. If anything it may be hard initially to quantify the gold into denominations, 1,5,10,100 dollar increments. But build ten more US mints. Then it should be fine. That way when you go to the bank you can either get your cash or your gold. To me that is really the only way to do it. Going on the gold standard will double or triple the price of gold per ounce, and lessen the amount per dollar. But if you question the rates, you can always do gold dust. if Gold is always changing, have a automatic machine that puts out the proper ratio of gold dust in a ziplock bag for you, with the amount of ounces on it and current dollar rate to the penny. I believe gold going up will make the dollar weaker at least initially, but like I seen this year gold and the dollar were both going up. So that is technically possible when pegging them together that they will move more closely and not opposite.
other than getting rid of medicare and social security outright, and even then you are only buying yourself a few decades (at best).
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