- Feb 1, 2019
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Split yes, but as long as International delegates vote with US conservatives, it's not going to be "towards the inclusive side." The institution will remain with the conservatives. I also wonder whether the majority of churches and conferences will really leave, particularly as it's likely to be fairly difficult for them.
I suspect that there will be a liberal splinter that's a minority, with the remainder containing a lot of disguntled people. I don't think the future for either half of the UMC in the US is bright in such a situation.
I predict that in the long run the WCA will not want to be part of this, and will leave. I haven't detected in their communications any real commitment to the UMC as an institution.
It is yet more complicated than that. The Progressives for 2020 now have the majority in the US jurisdictional conferences. Few if any conservative Bishops have a shot of getting elected. The majority of the US can’t stand the traditional plan with its punative punishments. And while the conservatives can, in theory, control the agencies through the GC, the US pays for 97% of the denomination. If people won’t give to it, those agencies can’t exist.
I expect the denomination to split but after the huge surge in progressive and centrist delegates voted in, I could still see the WCA pulling out, or a negotiated split as a possibility.
None of the leaders of the WCA are going to GC as delegates. They all got rejected. That is going to make the WCA very cautious about what it does next.
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