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Presidential Race 2016 Predictions

Vicomte13

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It's both sides. Very few people are really pro their candidate as much as anti the other. Poll after poll shows this and it's a sad state of affairs.

For me it's a choice between "more of the same" and "spirit of 1930s fascism" and, well, I have to go with more of the same.

I hate the Republicans, and I think the Democrats are incompetent. But I've liked Trump from the beginning. Obviously I don't think he's a fascist. If I'm wrong...well, I'll be ok, given that I'm a heterosexual white European upper middle class male. So, really, if he just awful, it won't be worse for me than for anybody else, unless he blows up the world. Given that he's looking to be buddies with Putin, I doubt it.

I'm so sick of the lock of corruption on the country from the two parties that I am as eager as hoi polloi to some Schumpterian creative destruction.
 
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LoAmmi

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I hate the Republicans, and I think the Democrats are incompetent. But I've liked Trump from the beginning. Obviously I don't think he's a fascist. If I'm wrong...well, I'll be ok, given that I'm a heterosexual white European upper middle class male. So, really, if he just awful, it won't be worse for me than for anybody else, unless he blows up the world. Given that he's looking to be buddies with Putin, I doubt it.

I'm so sick of the lock of corruption on the country from the two parties that I am as eager as hoi polloi to some Schumpterian creative destruction.

It won't be any worse for me either, provided nobody gets the bright idea that Jews are the blame as well. Haven't heard that from his main supporters (yet anyway). But if I am only for myself, who am I?
 
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Vicomte13

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It won't be any worse for me either, provided nobody gets the bright idea that Jews are the blame as well. Haven't heard that from his main supporters (yet anyway). But if I am only for myself, who am I?

Fortunately there is a great deal that I think he has to offer the country. If I were just in it for myself, I would obviously be a staunch Bushite Republican.
 
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Fish and Bread

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I don't. I don't really think that an "uneducated" class exists in America. Everybody can read and write and compute at a basic level.

I am of course referring to people who are uneducated relative to other segments of the electorate, a category that might mean something like "High school graduates with no college" plus "People who did not graduate high school". I point that out only to discuss voting patterns, not to stigmatize anyone. In fact, this is exactly the demographic we Democrats need to do a better job of reaching out to, among whites (We capture that demographic in every other racial group).

Almost everybody, white people anyway, finished high school.

I have a GED, which is only really the tested equivalent of a high school education. Basically, I took a test on a Saturday morning to show I knew what a high school graduate should know. But I never actually sat through the last couple years of high school. :) So, I halfway contradict that statement myself (Although, really, I did attend some college, so I probably count as educated). ;) I think I agree with your overall point, though, which seems to be that almost all Americans are able to read and write at at least a basic level.

But then again, if Trump wins there will be substantial emigration from the USA through deportations and self-deportation

If Trump wins, I may self-deport, and I'm a native born white guy with ancestors in this country going back at least to the 1700s. ;) I'm kidding... I think.

Actually, truth be told, new immigration from Mexico relative to undocumented workers voluntarily going back to Mexico are now reaching similar enough levels that they cancel each other out. So, even under Obama, this is kind of a 10 or 20 years ago problem, if one considers immigration a problem to begin with. It's weird that Trump is able to campaign on this. But he's using immigrants as a scapegoat, and people love having scapegoats to blame things on, unfortunately (The term scapegoat actually comes from the Old Testament of the bible, not a new phenomona).

Projections for a changing electorate are based largely on birthrates (Hispanics tend to be Catholics and have more children, as a generalization) and the legalization of the folks we have here already, which would have all kinds of benefits that I don't want to get into typing on a phone, but might get back to later.

The majority of hey have made many efforts at trying to get it under control, particularly back in the W Bush era

Wasn't Bush Jr fluent in Spanish and for some level of immigration reform that would have led to a pathway to citizenship? Maybe I'm misremembering. It does seem out of character for him to be what I described, so maybe I'm not remembering correctly.

but the Republican Party in Congress betrayed them on the matter (the wealthy donors to the GOP love that cheap exploitable labor). With Trump

Wasn't Trump part of that rich donor class until he started running for President?

Might post some more later.
 
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Fish and Bread

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You Democrats like to talk as though you get to set the agenda, determine what "the subject" is. That arrogance is one of the reasons why the people are going to jam Trump down your throats. You're in charge, and you have failed

The President has been severely hamstrung by a Republican Congress who's leaders met before he was even inaugurated in his first term to decide how to keep him from getting anything done. I don't know if that really qualifies as the Democrats being "in charge". Give us both chambers of Congress, the Presidency, and the Supreme Court for an extended period of time, and then judge how we do. :) Even if you go back to the last President Clinton, again, he mostly had to deal with a Republican Congress- those Republicans were more willing to work with him than today's Republicans have been willing to work President Obama, so he did get some things done, but many of those achievements were not specifically Democratic in character, but bipartisan measures, so it would be hard to say that we ever really had a chance to carry out the agenda in our party platform in modern political history (Reagan onward).

When President Obama did briefly have 60 votes in the Senate and a Democratic majority in the House, he used it to get us out of the Great Recession and to get the Affordable Care Act through (Though the Supreme Court neutered it a bit, as did needing every single Democrat in the House including moderates and conservatives, who demanded removing things like removing the public option as a condition of their votes). That's not bad for such a short period of time, taking office at a time when most economists said a second Great Depression was unavoidable and we were fighting two wars. He also ended torture as an instrument of US policy.

It's a common saying around where I live that Christianity has not been tried and found and left wanting, it's never really been tried. The same might be said of progressive Democratic ideas about how to run the country. Even when we do get into power, it's mostly southern moderates controlling the agenda because they're the swing votes in Congress or they're the President (Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton). We've never really had a Bernie Sanders type as President and a strong majority of truly progressive Democrats in Congress to send him or her legislation.

Now, Clinton is a fairly moderate Democrat, too, and she'll be dealing with at least a Republican House and a Senate that is either Republican or only just barely Democratic where the leadership can't exert it's will fully. So, we still won't get a chance to show what we can do for the country even if we do as well as we could realistically hope for in this election. However, I'll take that scenario over Donald Trump, Paul Ryan, and Mitch McConnell any day.
 
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Fish and Bread

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That is just about all that the Clinton campaign offers as a reason to vote for her, isn't it?

I think there are some positive reasons people could use for voting for Hillary Clinton.

She has been a tireless champion of children her entire life, with such accomplishments as CHIP (Children's Health Insurance Program) before she was ever even elected to anything. She put a universal health care program on the table when her husband delegated the task to her in the early 90s- it failed to pass, but it planted the seeds of support for expanding health insurance coverage that later bore some fruit under President Obama.

Clinton knows world leaders well and is a very experienced diplomat, having served as Secretary of State. Even her time as first lady helped prepare her to be President, in a sense. She knows exactly what it's like to wake up at 3am because of an international emergency and have to deal with it on the fly, and by now the background information that people won't have time to tell her when the clock is ticking is stuff that she knows backward and forward, almost by instinct. She also served in the Senate and understands how that institution works, which will be helpful for her working with Congress if she's elected President.

Also, and I always hate to cite this, because when it's brought up, people say that a lot of folks are only voting for Clinton for this reason, and I don't think it's true that they are, but one positive to electing Clinton is that we would have after 44 male Presidents in a row, our nation's first female President. I'm not saying people should vote for her purely for that reason, of course, but I do think that it's something that people can feel good about getting as a bonus- breaking the glass ceiling and being able to tell their daughters that they can be anything they want to be someday, including President, and their daughters will believe them because a woman will be President or will have been President.

But, yeah, I voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary and Hillary Clinton is not my ideal candidate. I'm voting for Clinton because she isn't Donald Trump. But to say that that's the only thing she has going for her is an exaggeration. There are some good things about her that should translate into making her a better President than some people think. I'm not saying she'll be great, but I don't think she'll mess anything up horribly. I think Trump would mess things about really horribly. Sometimes going with the safe choice is the right choice.
 
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Fish and Bread

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If everything in the country is just fine and dandy...vote for 4 more years of it. If you think we could stand to make some improvements, vote for a candidate who wants to do that. This should be easy enough for anybody to understand.

In some ways, though, it's a dangerous oversimplification. What if people think the country isn't going that great, but it's still better than a lot of alternative options? Wouldn't that person still want to vote for Clinton to be on the safe side, unless they really think Trump represents a good chance of really positive change?

I mean, things aren't perfect, but they could *always* be worse. To me, Trump represents worse.
 
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tadoflamb

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Did you see that George HW Bush (Sr., President 89-93) is voting for Hillary Clinton?

The Arizona Republic (the Phoenix newspaper) endorsed Clinton, the first time they've endorsed a Democrat for President in it's 126 years.
 
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Armoured

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Did you see that George HW Bush (Sr., President 89-93) is voting for Hillary Clinton?
I look forward to the pending claims of Bush being a RINO from the Usual Suspects to handwave that inconvenient nugget.
 
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Albion

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For me it's a choice between "more of the same" and "spirit of 1930s fascism" and, well, I have to go with more of the same.

Well, that's really funny, you know, but I was actually trying to be as straightforward as possible. Yes, it would have been tempting to say that it's a choice between a change for the better and the "spirit of 1930s Stalinism" or something else in that vein. I didn't want to do that, and I'm sorry someone else did.
 
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Albion

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In some ways, though, it's a dangerous oversimplification. What if people think the country isn't going that great, but it's still better than a lot of alternative options? Wouldn't that person still want to vote for Clinton to be on the safe side, unless they really think Trump represents a good chance of really positive change?

I mean, things aren't perfect, but they could *always* be worse. To me, Trump represents worse.

Since you are speaking to me, my feeling is that "It could always be worse" is no way to approach the election when the country has been on a downward course for the past seven or so years. Trump will try to reverse things. She won't even try. She's campaigning on the myopic platform called "Why change? Everything is great right now!"

Trump has offered a number of suggestions for attacking the problems that have made 70% of the American people say that the country is on the wrong course, while Hillary doesn't even recognize that there are problems. She is the candidate of "keeping on keeping on."

This may account for the fact that she has offered almost nothing of consequence as a remedy for the nation's problems.
 
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LoAmmi

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Well, that's really funny, you know, but I was actually trying to be as straightforward as possible. Yes, it would have been tempting to say that it's a choice between a change for the better and the "spirit of 1930s Stalinism" or something else in that vein. I didn't want to do that, and I'm sorry someone else did.

I'm being straightforward. Nationalists running on populist arguments saying outsiders are ruining everything make me nervous.
 
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Fish and Bread

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Since you are speaking to me, my feeling is that "It could always be worse" is no way to approach the election when the country has been on a downward course for the past seven or so years. Trump will try to reverse things. She won't even try. She's campaigning on the myopic platform called "Why change? Everything is great right now!"

I disagree with the premise that the country has been on a downward spiral for the last 7-8 years.

I think what happened is that almost 30 years of Republican and pseudo-Republican economic policy caught up to us, and almost caused the second Republican Great Depression (Hebert Hoover, another Republican's, lack of regulation of the economy and advocacy of laissez-faire capitalism is part of what caused the first one in the 1930s.). Deregulation, a lack of government oversight and enforcement of anti-trust laws, and so on and so forth almost unquestionably are what caused the big banking problems that led to the Great Recession. Bush's tax cuts for the rich didn't help either- exploding deficits without stimulating the economy.

President Obama got in there and started cleaning things up. He avoided the economic depression that economists thought was unavoidable. He held it to just a severe recession and then started making things better. We've been out of a recession for a while now. The stock market came back up, unemployment came down, and things are rolling again to some extent. Are they as good as in the 20th century? Probably not. There are still problems. But when you consider what he inherited and the total lack of cooperation from the Republican Congress, I think he did a pretty good job. Plus, one has to consider that there were pre-existing trends towards certain things that already had people predicting that America was going to slide from being an economic super-power to simply one of five or six strong regional economic centers in the world- that's just the arc of history, and a single President could not have done anything to totally avoid that.

We needed tougher regulations on Wall-Street, and the reinstatement of Glass-Steagall. We did, when the Democrats had Congress, get the Dodd-Frank bill through, which was a nice start, although it didn't go far enough and the Republicans have subsequentially dismantled parts of it. Similarly, we tried to put in a strong Consumer Protection Agency, but the Republicans neutered it, so we got a weak one, but at least we have one now. And when they blocked Elizabeth Warren as the head of the CPA, she ran for Senate and now is doing a great job on key Senate committees. Did you see her grilling the CEO of Wells Fargo the other day? Warren is a great woman. Frankly, I wish we could make her President, but since we can't right now, I'd settle for taking back the Senate and making her part of the majority on committees rather than a minority voice.

In the 00s, Bush wanted to privatize Social Security, which basically meant eliminating it, for most intents and purposes. Democrats blocked that and have thwarted continued efforts. In fact, we now are achieving a growing consensus in the Democratic Party that we should expand benefits, not cut them. People pay FICA tax their entire working lives, and they deserve to receive Social Security and Medicare benefits when they retire or become disabled- they paid to support the last generation, the next generation should pay it to support them and be supported by their children the same way. In the old days, you used to have a situation where people could rely on savings, pensions, and Social Security as sort of a three-legged stool of retirement, but most middle class jobs don't offer pensions, a lot of the middle class has sunk into a paycheck to paycheck situation because of Republican attacks on unions and deregulation of corporations (They are even against a living wage), so people live paycheck to paycheck and can't afford to save- which means that we need to preserve Social Security. And Democrats are holding the line and doing it.

And, while it'd be nice to have true universal health care like in the UK, it wasn't politically achievable here, so President Obama had to compromise with the Affordable Care Act. And while Republicans and Republican-leaning Democrats removed the public option, the Republican dominated Supreme Court removed the Medicaid expansion for states that didn't want it, and Republicans refused to even consider reasonably reforms based on how the thing was doing on the ground and spent their time voting and re-voting to repeal the ACA something like 70 times in the House as if they had nothing better to do- DESPITE all that, we have insured 13 million people who were not previously ensured. We're saving lives and improving the quality of people's lives.

On foreign policy, Bush ignored terrorism for his first 9 months and didn't meet with his terrorism czar once. When someone handed him a report about how an attack by Bin Laden on the US was imminent, he told that person that they had covered their asses and to leave him alone. This was despite the Bill Clinton people emphasizing and reemphasizing repeatedly during the transition to the Bush administration that terrorism was the number one threat to our nation.

Then, when the terrorists struck, Bush overreacted and decided to chuck the 4th amendment and the Geneva Convention out the window and embark on illegal dragnet surveillance of telephones and Internet access, and illegal detainment and torture of people. Obama didn't reverse enough of that, but he did at least ditch torture.

What is going on in Iraq is not and was never Obama's fault- Obama opposed that war. Bush destabilized the region and created ISIS. ISIS's symbol should be a Republican elephant, because that's who they have to thank for their existence.

The Obama administration has built bridges with Iran and got us unprecedented access to their nuclear program. People may not like that treaty, but it's creating a safer world. And if Iran goes back on the deal, we'll know about it and be no worse off than had we never signed it.

We are certainly not problem free, but most of our problems stem from Republican policies and Republicans blocking the fixes that we need. Democrats are doing the best we can.

And, you know, when we talk about immigration, you know why Trump gets to go on his rants against it and scapegoat anyone who isn't a white male? It's because people want to come to this country. You know why they want to come? It's because, despite all of our problems, we are still one of the nicer places one could live in the world. I mean, apart from maybe some of Western Europe or Canada, what other places can really compete with what America offers?

We don't need to make this country great again, this country already is great. Trump thinks we're a third world country. Trump is wrong. There are things that could be better, but there are also some things that are going well, and it would be a big mistake to let Trump just blow everything up and start over.

Hillary Clinton offers a measured approach that'll keep the good and incrementally improve the band and the things that are good but not as good as they could be. It may not be the massive change people are clamoring for, but they had their chance to elect Bernie Sanders (I vote for Bernie in the primary) and they didn't, so Hillary Clinton's incremental approach is what we have left if want to keep what's going well and improve the rest. Trump is wrong when he says we're a third world country, but if we elect him, he may make us one- look at all the bankruptcies he's gone through with his businesses.

Now, of course, Clinton can't do it on her own. Hopefully, we'll elect her and give her a Democratic Senate. I wish we could give her a Democratic House, but it's not realistic because state governments were strongly Republican after the 2010 census when they got to redraw the districts for 2012-2021, and the majority of the people in the country who voted for the House at least one (2012, I think), voted for Democratic House candidates and somehow got a Republican House majority. But if people elect Democrats to their state and local governments consistently, after the next census in 2020, we'll start working to improve the board and create fair maps that will allow us to retake the House in 2022.

Sometimes in politics, you have to play the long game. It's not fun, but it's often the only way things really get done.

Clinton is not the ideal candidate, but she is 10x better than Trump. And those are the two choices I had. If anyone doesn't like them, don't blame me, I voted for Bernie in my party's primary, and told anyone who'd listen not to vote for Trump in the other party's primary. Now we have the two choices we have, and Clinton is clearly the better of the two general election contenders in my book.
 
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Vicomte13

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Did you see that George HW Bush (Sr., President 89-93) is voting for Hillary Clinton?

Unsurprising to me. When it was his second turn at bat, I voted for Perot for good reason: HW Bush has always had terrible judgment.
 
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Vicomte13

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In the 00s, Bush wanted to privatize Social Security,

This has always been a big Republican hobby-horse. It's one of the reasons Republicans are so detestable.
 
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Vicomte13

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But when you consider what he inherited and the total lack of cooperation from the Republican Congress, I think he did a pretty good job.

They cooperated with him on all of the matters that favored crony capitalists.
 
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Vicomte13

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On foreign policy, Bush ignored terrorism for his first 9 months and didn't meet with his terrorism czar once. When someone handed him a report about how an attack by Bin Laden on the US was imminent, he told that person that they had covered their asses and to leave him alone. This was despite the Bill Clinton people emphasizing and reemphasizing repeatedly during the transition to the Bush administration that terrorism was the number one threat to our nation.

America's decline began with LBJ's headlong assault on Vietnam. Both parties have marched together right over the cliff like lemmings. They are equally to blame. Right now, both are so eager for a new Cold War with Russia. Obama and Hillary tried to start it by overthrowing the elected Ukrainian government, and all of the Republicans except Trump were eager to eat fire and spew death threats at the Russians. Those defense contracts sure are sweet.
 
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Vicomte13

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The Obama administration has built bridges with Iran and got us unprecedented access to their nuclear program. People may not like that treaty, but it's creating a safer world.

Don't kid yourself.

But what WILL create a safer world is a US-Russian cooperation under which the Russians supervise their Iranian "friends". That will be much more effective than what we are doing.
 
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Vicomte13

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Democrats are doing the best we can.

Democrats are corrupt crony capitalists, funded by Goldman Sachs and Silicon Valley. They have put up an unindicted felon and pathological liar as their candidate for President, and the people are going to reject her 52%-48% in the Fall.

The good news for Democrats is that Donald Trump was a Democrat most of his life, and doesn't think like a Republican on any major issues. That's why the GOP hates him so much that their grandees - the execrable Bush family - won't vote for him.

So, you've got two Democrats on the ticket. One's a blowhard and the other's a criminal. The blowhard will win, because the people want immigration brought firmly under control NOW, and they want the laws skewed to favor the lower middle class and working class.

If the Democrats are partisan boneheads (which they are) they will block him. Republicans, of course, will block him.

So he's going to trot out the Obama/W precedents of Executive Orders, and BOTH sides are going to hate it.
 
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