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When does "Creationism" fail?

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vossler

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Your response slipped past me. :sorry:
Now we have found fossils in Africa and whether you choose to categorize each individually as ape or human, it is undeniable that they display a mixture of ape-like and human-like characteristics.

Does this meet Darwin's prediction?
It meets his prediction if you go into the process trying to find what you are looking for in the same way if I went into the same process trying to find what I was looking for. In other words we both can see the same evidence and come up with two entirely different conclusions. The proof is in the evidence and there it is lacking.

From everything I’ve read and seen they’ve only found a relatively few fossils, so few that up until recently I’ve been told the entire total of all ‘transitional fossils’ could be placed in a single coffin. I don’t know if that’s true but it sure gives us something else to think about.
Can one logically claim a relationship between apes and humans and predict a fossil similarity between cats and humans instead?

If one's claim is a relationship between apes and humans, does not logic require that fossil evidence of that relationship confirm similarities to both apes and humans? What does motivation have to do with it?
Of course there is fossil evidence to that confirms similarities between apes and humans. All that does is confirm what I can see with my own eyes. That wouldn’t be much of a prediction. As for how cats and humans got involved with this discussion I’m confused.

Motivation is important because it tells us what preconceived thoughts led us to our conclusions. You have to admit how we see the world taints how we see evidence.
Furthermore, Darwin's motivations have nothing to do with the actual characteristics of the actual fossils found. That is a matter of observation, as we have already established.
They have everything to do with what he expected to see. I gave the football game analogy before because it is so true. A single play occurs, 100,000 witnessed it and half thought one thing occurred while the other half thought the complete opposite. Motivation has everything to do with what they saw and it does so in this field too.

The way the fossils are classified is also not a matter of contention. Paleontologists gladly agree that the australopithicids are apes. But that doesn't change the fact that their leg and pelvic bones are more human than ape-like and that they normally walked erect rather than being knuckle-walkers like chimps and gorillas. Similarly, if you see H. erectus as being "human", I don't think a paleontologist will disagree with you. But that does not change the fact that some H. erectus characteristics (low forehead, prominent browridges) are more ape-like than human-like.

All of this is observed fact whether or not one assumes evolution. Right?
The observations are without a doubt accurate, at least from the standpoint of these people reporting what they actually saw. But as I’ve said many times, what we see is filtered by our preconceived ideas and will manifest itself accordingly.
Let's just take the last part of that question again. If the fossil evidence that did turn up had been very different from what Darwin predicted, would that have an effect on the credibility of his theory?
Of course, but the thing is that really wasn’t much of a prediction. Most of us here could have done likewise.

If we had found the australopithicids and early hominids in North America instead of Africa, could we still sustain a theory that humans are most closely related to the great apes of Africa?
Given that the Bible itself tells us that all early humans originated in the Middle East, it’s certainly not hard to predict the location of the oldest fossils would be near there.

If we had found the earliest evidence of "human-like" features in cat-like fossils instead of in ape-like fossils, could we still sustain a theory that humans are most closely related to the great apes?
It doesn’t take looking at fossils to understand humans are physically closely related to apes. Most of us would surmise that without a single fossil to help us out.

All I am looking for at this time is whether it is speculation that the evidence found concords with the predictions made. If so, what does that imply about the predictions?
What specific evidence is it that you’re addressing?

You are agreeing that logical consequences do not come under the rubric of "conjecture and speculation". So now the challenge becomes one of showing whether the scientific conclusions are conjecture or logical consequences. Or is it possible to be both? What then?
I could certainly go with the idea they have some logic and a lot of conjecture. If you think about it they have to have some logic, otherwise it would be almost impossible to dupe so many people with so little evidence. You ask; what then? I can’t place any stock in a theory based on some logic and a lot of conjecture and speculation; something that in so many ways contradicts the very Word of God.
 
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gluadys

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Your response slipped past me. :sorry:

No problem, I almost missed your last one too.

It meets his prediction if you go into the process trying to find what you are looking for in the same way if I went into the same process trying to find what I was looking for. In other words we both can see the same evidence and come up with two entirely different conclusions. The proof is in the evidence and there it is lacking.

I think you are losing focus here and going beyond the scope of the question. I am only talking about the evidence itself, not the interpretation of the evidence.

You are agreeing that the evidence was found where Darwin predicted it would be found, right? In Africa, not North America or China, not Russia or the Middle East.

Is that fact affected in any way by different perspectives on what the evidence means?

From everything I’ve read and seen they’ve only found a relatively few fossils, so few that up until recently I’ve been told the entire total of all ‘transitional fossils’ could be placed in a single coffin. I don’t know if that’s true but it sure gives us something else to think about.

Again, this is side-stepping the issue. It wouldn' t matter if we had only a single fossil with the predicted characteristics. It would still be confirmation that a species had once existed with a mixture of ape-like and human-like characteristics.

As it is we have many more than a single fossil. In many cases we have more than a single fossil of various species of hominids. Lucy, for example, is not the only fossil we have of A. Afarensis. There are half a dozen others as well.

You don't have to rely on rumours about how many transitional hominid fossils there are. That info is readily available with a quick browser search.

Of course there is fossil evidence to that confirms similarities between apes and humans. All that does is confirm what I can see with my own eyes. That wouldn’t be much of a prediction. As for how cats and humans got involved with this discussion I’m confused.

Just making the contrast. As you say, we can see with our own eyes that humans and apes share many more morphological similarities than humans and cats. (And, of course, we now know that the same is true of our DNA.)

Motivation is important because it tells us what preconceived thoughts led us to our conclusions. You have to admit how we see the world taints how we see evidence.

More to the point in this conversation is how our preconceived thoughts lead to predictions.


They have everything to do with what he expected to see. I gave the football game analogy before because it is so true. A single play occurs, 100,000 witnessed it and half thought one thing occurred while the other half thought the complete opposite. Motivation has everything to do with what they saw and it does so in this field too.

In the case of the football game, we can determine who saw correctly by replaying the videotape. Tell me, would the motivations of either group influence what was recorded on the tape?

In the case of Darwin's predictions, we examine the evidence that turns up, evidence that was not available at the time he made the prediction. For the sake of argument, let's agree he had motivations which led to making the predictions he did. (Although he also had other reasons too.) What impact would that have on the physical existence of the evidence? Did Darwin's motivations put hominid fossils in Africa? Did Darwin's motivations determine the cranial capacity of H. ergaster or the length of H. habilis' arms?

Remember, at this point I am talking about the evidence itself, not how it is interpreted.

The observations are without a doubt accurate, at least from the standpoint of these people reporting what they actually saw. But as I’ve said many times, what we see is filtered by our preconceived ideas and will manifest itself accordingly.

Are you suggesting that someone who does not believe in evolution would get a different measurement of these characteristics? Please focus on the evidence itself, not interpretation of the evidence. You often say YECs and TEs have the same evidence. This sounds as if you are no longer agreeing that the evidence is the same for both.

Of course, but the thing is that really wasn’t much of a prediction. Most of us here could have done likewise.

So most of us have as much common sense as Darwin. ;)

The important thing is that if the evidence was much different, it would show not only that Darwin's predictions were wrong, but that the theoretical basis of his predictions was wrong. It would falsify his theory of human evolution.

So what can we infer about his theory when his predictions are accurate?



Given that the Bible itself tells us that all early humans originated in the Middle East, it’s certainly not hard to predict the location of the oldest fossils would be near there.

It is still quite a leap from the Middle East to Africa, especially as the bible seems to indicate Mesopotamia, not the Negev, as the point of human origin.

It doesn’t take looking at fossils to understand humans are physically closely related to apes. Most of us would surmise that without a single fossil to help us out.

As Darwin did. He had no fossil to help him out.

What specific evidence is it that you’re addressing?

The evidence of hominid fossils in Africa, as per Darwin's predictions of 1871.
What does the evidence found in Africa since 1871 imply about Darwin's predictions?

Note, I am not asking about Darwin's theory. I am asking only about his predictions as outlined earlier in this thread.


I could certainly go with the idea they have some logic and a lot of conjecture. If you think about it they have to have some logic, otherwise it would be almost impossible to dupe so many people with so little evidence. You ask; what then? I can’t place any stock in a theory based on some logic and a lot of conjecture and speculation; something that in so many ways contradicts the very Word of God.

As I said, I am trying to figure out where the conjecture comes in. We have established (I think) that it does not come in the evidence. You have said logical conclusions are not conjecture. Now what I am looking at is whether Darwin's predictions were conjecture or logical conclusion or both. But first, let's establish the relationship between the predictions and the evidence found.

Does the evidence show that Darwin's predictions were incorrect or that they were accurate?

Again, note that Darwin could be right in his predictions but still incorrect in his theory, so you are not committing yourself to the theory if you agree his predictions were accurate.
 
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vossler

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You are agreeing that the evidence was found where Darwin predicted it would be found, right? In Africa, not North America or China, not Russia or the Middle East.
From what I've been told yes.
In the case of the football game, we can determine who saw correctly by replaying the videotape. Tell me, would the motivations of either group influence what was recorded on the tape?
Videotapes and replays don't exist when we're dealing with the ancient past.
In the case of Darwin's predictions, we examine the evidence that turns up, evidence that was not available at the time he made the prediction. For the sake of argument, let's agree he had motivations which led to making the predictions he did. (Although he also had other reasons too.) What impact would that have on the physical existence of the evidence? Did Darwin's motivations put hominid fossils in Africa? Did Darwin's motivations determine the cranial capacity of H. ergaster or the length of H. habilis' arms?
I don't think either of us is questioning the evidence. It's the interpretation of said evidence that is always called into question.
Are you suggesting that someone who does not believe in evolution would get a different measurement of these characteristics?
No, I'm saying that if I look at the evidence trying to find something that supports my preconceived ideas I will skim over or ignore information that is contrary to that which in turn does skew the measurements/observations because something was omitted from consideration.
So what can we infer about his theory when his predictions are accurate?
That he was a good guesser? :p
What does the evidence found in Africa since 1871 imply about Darwin's predictions?

Note, I am not asking about Darwin's theory. I am asking only about his predictions as outlined earlier in this thread.
I don't know, but I have a sneaking suspicion that you do.
Does the evidence show that Darwin's predictions were incorrect or that they were accurate?
Some of them certainly were accurate, but I wouldn't go so far as to say they all were.
 
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gluadys

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I don't think either of us is questioning the evidence. It's the interpretation of said evidence that is always called into question.

Exactly. That is why I have been limiting our discussion so far to the evidence and to predictions relative to the evidence. So to this point we are agreed that we are not dealing with conjecture and speculation, right?

The conjecture and speculation you object to then seems to lie only in the interpretation of the evidence. Is that correct?

No, I'm saying that if I look at the evidence trying to find something that supports my preconceived ideas I will skim over or ignore information that is contrary to that which in turn does skew the measurements/observations because something was omitted from consideration.

That is certainly a consideration when looking at something being proposed by one scientist or team of scientists, especially if they are funded by a sponsor concerned with getting a certain result.

But this consideration is mitigated by the public nature of science which means that the evidence and methods of study used are open to the scrutiny of the whole community of scientists who do raise objections when they see places where evidence may have been omitted from consideration or down-played in its importance. We have to remember that a theory like evolution has already run through a gauntlet of critique by scientists who raised objections to it when it was still a new and untried theory. Just as in the 20th century, theories like the Big Bang and plate tectonics were submitted to similar scrutiny for decades before they were accepted.

That he was a good guesser? :p

Or maybe there was something more than just guesswork involved. Back to that in a minute.

Some of them certainly were accurate, but I wouldn't go so far as to say they all were.

Oh, indeed. My question was only about the specific predictions we have been discussing. Darwin was by no means infallible and certainly had some incorrect ideas too.

I don't know, but I have a sneaking suspicion that you do.

Well, let's get back to how Darwin was able to be such a good guesser.

You have objected to science that includes "conjecture and speculation". I think it was Mallon who noted that all science includes conjecture and speculation at some point. Mallon is right.

But we need to look at when and where in the scientific method conjecture is used appropriately and how it figures into the whole.

Let's use a simple analogy. You get up in the morning and you prepare to drive to work. You don't find your car keys in the place you usually keep them. Where could they be?

You think about the last time you remember having them and try to remember where you put them. Your first guess is that you left them in the pocket of the jacket you were wearing yesterday.

Now that is a conjecture. You are making a guess as to where the keys are.

Now three questions about this conjecture.

1. Is it a reasonable conjecture? Do you have a reason to suppose the keys might be in the pocket of your jacket?

2. Now that you have made a guess as to where the keys might be, what is your next move?

3. What if you find your keys in the jacket pocket? What does that say about your original conjecture? And what if you don't find the keys in your jacket pocket? What does that say about your original conjecture? IOW what does the evidence, positive or negative, say about your conjecture?
 
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vossler

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Exactly. That is why I have been limiting our discussion so far to the evidence and to predictions relative to the evidence. So to this point we are agreed that we are not dealing with conjecture and speculation, right?
As far as I can tell yes!
The conjecture and speculation you object to then seems to lie only in the interpretation of the evidence. Is that correct?
Yes!
That is certainly a consideration when looking at something being proposed by one scientist or team of scientists, especially if they are funded by a sponsor concerned with getting a certain result.
I'm glad you agree.
But this consideration is mitigated by the public nature of science which means that the evidence and methods of study used are open to the scrutiny of the whole community of scientists who do raise objections when they see places where evidence may have been omitted from consideration or down-played in its importance. We have to remember that a theory like evolution has already run through a gauntlet of critique by scientists who raised objections to it when it was still a new and untried theory. Just as in the 20th century, theories like the Big Bang and plate tectonics were submitted to similar scrutiny for decades before they were accepted.
You have to remember that a theory like evolution appeals the very nature of man. It allows man to be in control and not be subject to the requirements of a higher being. This is especially desirable to highly intelligent people like scientists.
What if you find your keys in the jacket pocket? What does that say about your original conjecture?
I don't know, that your conjecture was true and now is a fact?
And what if you don't find the keys in your jacket pocket? What does that say about your original conjecture?
Nice guess but wrong?
IOW what does the evidence, positive or negative, say about your conjecture?
That it was well thought out?
 
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gluadys

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You have to remember that a theory like evolution appeals the very nature of man. It allows man to be in control and not be subject to the requirements of a higher being. This is especially desirable to highly intelligent people like scientists.

Kind of like lightning rods allow us not to submit to the anger of a lightning-throwing god. And medications allow us not to submit to deities that send plagues.

I don't know that it is necessarily unscriptural for humans to be in control of nature. After all, God gave us dominion over the natural world.

I don't know, that your conjecture was true and now is a fact?

In this case, yes. The conjecture turns out to be a fact. In more complicated scenarios such as scientists often deal with, we cannot go as far as saying the conjecture has become fact. What we can say, when the evidence turns out to be what was expected and predicted is that the conjecture has not been shown to be wrong---yet. New evidence might still turn up to show it is wrong.

This is because a scientific theory brings together many facts, many observations. And each needs to be tested out individually. The conjecture may make it past tests A, B, C, D and E ok only to fail on test F.

However, the more often the conjecture correctly predicts new evidence, the more confidence scientists have that it is a true description of reality.

Is this a reasonable attitude?

Nice guess but wrong?

Exactly, and what is the next step then?


That it was well thought out?

It is interesting that you say this even though I asked about both positive and negative results. It does bear on the characteristics of a good scientific conjecture. Even if you were wrong about the car keys being in your jacket pocket (you eventually found them by the telephone instead), that doesn't mean the first conjecture was a bad one.

You did reason your way to the first conjecture.

Just so, a good scientific conjecture is well-thought out based on sound reasoning about the observations it pertains to.

It may still be wrong, but it is not just plucked out of thin air for no reason.

Here is another question for you. Why is conjecture a necessary part of science? How does it help scientists do their work?

Think about the lost car key scenario again. How did reasoning out where the keys might be help you to find them quickly?
 
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vossler

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However, the more often the conjecture correctly predicts new evidence, the more confidence scientists have that it is a true description of reality.

Is this a reasonable attitude?
Sure.
Exactly, and what is the next step then?
I don’t know formulate another hypothesis?

Here is another question for you. Why is conjecture a necessary part of science? How does it help scientists do their work?
Think about the lost car key scenario again. How did reasoning out where the keys might be help you to find them quickly?
I’ve told Mallon this already, I don’t have a problem with scientists using conjecture, they couldn’t do their work without it. The problem is when your findings are based on conjecture and then made to be shown as fact.

Maybe I should be answering every question with God did it, I think that’s what most would like to hear.
 
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