The continuum of responses to the COVID-19 range from isolating as much as possible, to continuing our normal lives as much as possible. Within this continuum, one response is the idea that to shelter in place will flatten the curve of infection, so that rate of infection will be a lesser constant over a period of time, thereby allowing us to avoid higher peaks that will occur if no measures are taken. What is often left out in this debate, are the advantages of that occur when we push infections down the timeline.
1. We know too little about the long term consequences of the virus. On 4/15, the Wall Street Journal included an article entitled: "Coronavirus Ravages the Lungs. It also Effects the Brain," (sorry it is likely obtainable by subscription only) What this means is that younger and even asymptomatic people with the virus, may be effected long term with various disorders that may not present themselves at the time of infection. Such disorders are not limited to lung and heart damage but also nervous system problems which potentially could include developing Parkinson's disease or Alzheimers. A quick google search of long term effects of COV-19 includes numerous ailments.
2. Pushing more infections out into time will result in better treatment methods. Many think that drug trials take too long, and vaccines will not be available to the masses until possibly the Spring of 2021. Science does not just begin with statistical trials. Sometimes even a single case study can provide clues as to what effects might be present. Dr's are learning from their colleagues as to what potentially works. For instance, I read how one Dr. was seeing blood clots, before death in patients, and decided to try using TPA an anti-blood clotting drug in a drip form that would help try and prevent the death of one patient. While life was only extended for a few days when this was first tried, the results were encouraging enough that others are also trying this approach with the sickest of patients. Colorado doctors test anti-blood clot treatment on COVID-19 patients, optimistic about results so far Remdesivir and other anti-virals do seem to be helping reduce the replication of the virus and auto-immune suppressants help keep the immune system from acting too aggressively, a common problem in those who die from COVID-19. Many of these drugs are available today, and though all are investigational for COVID-19, they are not quackery. Pushing the timeline out for infections will allow Doctors to better determine what exactly is working, and
3. Isolating ourselves will also result in better equipment to be available for everyone. Masks and other personal protective gear are being manufactured worldwide. Kudos to those employees and managers who likely are pushing their teams to the max in order to get the equipment out. More ventilators, testing and knowledge is going to result if we can be patient.
4. There is speculation still as to whether immunity is sufficient to avoid reinfections. Thus, the narrative that nations can develop herd immunity is unproven. There are a few nations that are trying this approach and over more time we will know if this approach is working.
5. There are threats in the food supply chain. Several U.S. meat processors have had to curtail or reduce operations because these plants have had significant amount of COVID-19 infections. If we are not patient enough in trying to suppress this virus, we could see various products disappear off food shelves. Already gun sales are through the roof. This is because people are planning for a potential panic. Loss of foodstuffs is not just about having enough food, it could potentially send areas into anarchy.
When the charts for flattening the curve appear, the curves are still typically represented as Bell Curves, though the flattened one has a lesser peak, it portrays the same number of infections spread out over a longer period of time. This particular one has slight differences in the right tail, but the distribution of infections is still pretty much the same on both sides of the curves. These distributions are still estimates based on unproven assumptions. There are scenarios where letting the curve peak faster might results in fewer total infections. For that to occur, herd immunity would have to present itself quicker than expected. Meanwhile the hospitals could be overwhelmed and care for those that needed it would be substandard. There is no surety either as to what the right end of the curve will be like. Going down the cases could diminish faster than going up. Still, those are the best estimates that we have at the moment and the evidence seems to make staying home a better choice. Governors or local officials should realize that they are in authority and their number one priority should be the safety of their residents. Politics and economics (at least for now) should be secondary. Thus, the case for patience; for each of us to help flatten the curve by doing what we can seems to be the better solution, at least for now. Lastly, there is too much policy talk of restrictions versus openness. Any changes do not have to be some big decision, no they should be incremental changes that should be evaluated daily. In the meantime, love your neighbors and avoid giving and getting COVID-19.
In the future I will discuss a Christian perspective on the trade-off between money and lives might be best addressed. I also am hoping to look at issues of personal faith to be used against catching the virus.
1. We know too little about the long term consequences of the virus. On 4/15, the Wall Street Journal included an article entitled: "Coronavirus Ravages the Lungs. It also Effects the Brain," (sorry it is likely obtainable by subscription only) What this means is that younger and even asymptomatic people with the virus, may be effected long term with various disorders that may not present themselves at the time of infection. Such disorders are not limited to lung and heart damage but also nervous system problems which potentially could include developing Parkinson's disease or Alzheimers. A quick google search of long term effects of COV-19 includes numerous ailments.
2. Pushing more infections out into time will result in better treatment methods. Many think that drug trials take too long, and vaccines will not be available to the masses until possibly the Spring of 2021. Science does not just begin with statistical trials. Sometimes even a single case study can provide clues as to what effects might be present. Dr's are learning from their colleagues as to what potentially works. For instance, I read how one Dr. was seeing blood clots, before death in patients, and decided to try using TPA an anti-blood clotting drug in a drip form that would help try and prevent the death of one patient. While life was only extended for a few days when this was first tried, the results were encouraging enough that others are also trying this approach with the sickest of patients. Colorado doctors test anti-blood clot treatment on COVID-19 patients, optimistic about results so far Remdesivir and other anti-virals do seem to be helping reduce the replication of the virus and auto-immune suppressants help keep the immune system from acting too aggressively, a common problem in those who die from COVID-19. Many of these drugs are available today, and though all are investigational for COVID-19, they are not quackery. Pushing the timeline out for infections will allow Doctors to better determine what exactly is working, and
3. Isolating ourselves will also result in better equipment to be available for everyone. Masks and other personal protective gear are being manufactured worldwide. Kudos to those employees and managers who likely are pushing their teams to the max in order to get the equipment out. More ventilators, testing and knowledge is going to result if we can be patient.
4. There is speculation still as to whether immunity is sufficient to avoid reinfections. Thus, the narrative that nations can develop herd immunity is unproven. There are a few nations that are trying this approach and over more time we will know if this approach is working.
5. There are threats in the food supply chain. Several U.S. meat processors have had to curtail or reduce operations because these plants have had significant amount of COVID-19 infections. If we are not patient enough in trying to suppress this virus, we could see various products disappear off food shelves. Already gun sales are through the roof. This is because people are planning for a potential panic. Loss of foodstuffs is not just about having enough food, it could potentially send areas into anarchy.
When the charts for flattening the curve appear, the curves are still typically represented as Bell Curves, though the flattened one has a lesser peak, it portrays the same number of infections spread out over a longer period of time. This particular one has slight differences in the right tail, but the distribution of infections is still pretty much the same on both sides of the curves. These distributions are still estimates based on unproven assumptions. There are scenarios where letting the curve peak faster might results in fewer total infections. For that to occur, herd immunity would have to present itself quicker than expected. Meanwhile the hospitals could be overwhelmed and care for those that needed it would be substandard. There is no surety either as to what the right end of the curve will be like. Going down the cases could diminish faster than going up. Still, those are the best estimates that we have at the moment and the evidence seems to make staying home a better choice. Governors or local officials should realize that they are in authority and their number one priority should be the safety of their residents. Politics and economics (at least for now) should be secondary. Thus, the case for patience; for each of us to help flatten the curve by doing what we can seems to be the better solution, at least for now. Lastly, there is too much policy talk of restrictions versus openness. Any changes do not have to be some big decision, no they should be incremental changes that should be evaluated daily. In the meantime, love your neighbors and avoid giving and getting COVID-19.
In the future I will discuss a Christian perspective on the trade-off between money and lives might be best addressed. I also am hoping to look at issues of personal faith to be used against catching the virus.