THE ROLE OF RUSSIA IN THE MIDDLE EAST
I have already alluded to the fact that Turkey is pulling away from involvement with European ties such as the EU and NATO, and pursuing a closer relationship with Russia, China and Iran. The following statement from Turkish PM Edrogan exemplifies this shift:
""I recently said to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin: ‘Take us into the Shanghai Five. Take us and we will say goodbye to the EU.' What's the point of stalling?” Erdoğan said, referring to the SCO by its previous name."
-- China welcomes Turkish bid for SCO membership
Turkey's position is critical for long-term Russian planning, because Turkey controls Russia's access to the Mediterranean from the Black Sea -- in particular, to Russia's only naval base there, Tartus in Syria (see map below).
"Russia’s chief naval base is located in Sebastopol in the Crimean Peninsula which is part of Ukraine. The lease for that base expires in 2017, although an accord to extend it for a further 25 years has been initialed by Moscow and Kiev. If Ukraine asks Russia to leave the Crimean, Moscow would effectively cease having a blue water navy. This is why Tartus is important as an alternative base."
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An article from last July elaborates on Russia's dilemna:
"At present Russia lacks the ships to retain a permanent presence of combat vessels in Tartus – Russia’s only overseas military base outside the borders of the former Soviet Union. A Black Sea Fleet repair and maintenance ship is permanently moored in Tartus to offer aid in case a Russian warship needs urgent repairs. Two times a year, the maintenance ship sails back to Sevastopol from Tartus, to be replaced for the following half year by another similar naval support vessel. The land-based Russian naval garrison in Tartus is 50 men strong. According to the Russian naval command, this month, tugboats of the Black Sea Fleet pulled a new floating pier into Tartus to expand its docking capability. Yet, Russian combat ships visit Tartus only several times a year, and then stay for just a day or two (RIA Novosti, July 20)."
-- The Jamestown Foundation: single[tt_news]=39715
With Turkey and Russia backing different horses in the Syrian conflict, there is an obvious problem: Russia depends on Syria for its only overseas base, in Tartus; yet it depends on the good will of Turkey in order to get to that base. Now, wouldn't it be lovely for Russia, if Turkey and Syria were on the same side. The key to this relationship seems to be the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, cited above. That council, which has staged joint military maneuvers, has reached out to both Turkey and Iran (see map):
BEIJING, June 7 (Xinhua) -- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has decided to grant Afghanistan observer status [blue], and accept Turkey as a dialogue partner [violet], Chinese President Hu Jintao said on Thursday. -- Shanghai Cooperation Organization Accepts Turkey as Dialogue Partner
The major obstacle, once Turkey and Iran have joined the SCO, seems to be getting rid of Bashar Assad. Russia seems willing to coax things in that direction:
"While Russian officials voiced objections to Israeli attacking Syria, they also apparently omitted to forewarn President Assad of what was coming and he was taken by surprise. After the raid, President Vladimir Putin advised the Syrian ruler to refrain from exacerbating the military situation with Israel."
-- Obama green light for Israel to strike Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah military links
Does any of this mean that Russia is "Magog" of Ezekiel 38-39, as so many insist? I doubt it. Russia is not mentioned in ANY prophecy, and definitely not in Ezekiel; and there is no reason to believe that they would want to become mired, Afghanistan-style, in such an adventure. Far more likely, is that Russia and the US will become involved in yet another proxy war, with the Russians backing Turkey and the Americans backing Israel ("leading from behind", of course, as President Obama likes to say, with "no boots on the ground").
Shalom shalom
PS While looking at Map #1, you might notice that Iran borders Turkey. If Bashar Assad were to lose most of Syria and become confined to say, the Alawite stronghold near Syria's coast, Iran could continue to supply its Hizbullah allies in Lebanon through Turkey.
I have already alluded to the fact that Turkey is pulling away from involvement with European ties such as the EU and NATO, and pursuing a closer relationship with Russia, China and Iran. The following statement from Turkish PM Edrogan exemplifies this shift:
""I recently said to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin: ‘Take us into the Shanghai Five. Take us and we will say goodbye to the EU.' What's the point of stalling?” Erdoğan said, referring to the SCO by its previous name."
-- China welcomes Turkish bid for SCO membership
Turkey's position is critical for long-term Russian planning, because Turkey controls Russia's access to the Mediterranean from the Black Sea -- in particular, to Russia's only naval base there, Tartus in Syria (see map below).
According to Asharq Al-Awsat,
"Russia’s chief naval base is located in Sebastopol in the Crimean Peninsula which is part of Ukraine. The lease for that base expires in 2017, although an accord to extend it for a further 25 years has been initialed by Moscow and Kiev. If Ukraine asks Russia to leave the Crimean, Moscow would effectively cease having a blue water navy. This is why Tartus is important as an alternative base."
-- Loading...
An article from last July elaborates on Russia's dilemna:
"At present Russia lacks the ships to retain a permanent presence of combat vessels in Tartus – Russia’s only overseas military base outside the borders of the former Soviet Union. A Black Sea Fleet repair and maintenance ship is permanently moored in Tartus to offer aid in case a Russian warship needs urgent repairs. Two times a year, the maintenance ship sails back to Sevastopol from Tartus, to be replaced for the following half year by another similar naval support vessel. The land-based Russian naval garrison in Tartus is 50 men strong. According to the Russian naval command, this month, tugboats of the Black Sea Fleet pulled a new floating pier into Tartus to expand its docking capability. Yet, Russian combat ships visit Tartus only several times a year, and then stay for just a day or two (RIA Novosti, July 20)."
-- The Jamestown Foundation: single[tt_news]=39715
With Turkey and Russia backing different horses in the Syrian conflict, there is an obvious problem: Russia depends on Syria for its only overseas base, in Tartus; yet it depends on the good will of Turkey in order to get to that base. Now, wouldn't it be lovely for Russia, if Turkey and Syria were on the same side. The key to this relationship seems to be the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, cited above. That council, which has staged joint military maneuvers, has reached out to both Turkey and Iran (see map):
BEIJING, June 7 (Xinhua) -- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has decided to grant Afghanistan observer status [blue], and accept Turkey as a dialogue partner [violet], Chinese President Hu Jintao said on Thursday. -- Shanghai Cooperation Organization Accepts Turkey as Dialogue Partner
The major obstacle, once Turkey and Iran have joined the SCO, seems to be getting rid of Bashar Assad. Russia seems willing to coax things in that direction:
"While Russian officials voiced objections to Israeli attacking Syria, they also apparently omitted to forewarn President Assad of what was coming and he was taken by surprise. After the raid, President Vladimir Putin advised the Syrian ruler to refrain from exacerbating the military situation with Israel."
-- Obama green light for Israel to strike Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah military links
Does any of this mean that Russia is "Magog" of Ezekiel 38-39, as so many insist? I doubt it. Russia is not mentioned in ANY prophecy, and definitely not in Ezekiel; and there is no reason to believe that they would want to become mired, Afghanistan-style, in such an adventure. Far more likely, is that Russia and the US will become involved in yet another proxy war, with the Russians backing Turkey and the Americans backing Israel ("leading from behind", of course, as President Obama likes to say, with "no boots on the ground").
Shalom shalom
PS While looking at Map #1, you might notice that Iran borders Turkey. If Bashar Assad were to lose most of Syria and become confined to say, the Alawite stronghold near Syria's coast, Iran could continue to supply its Hizbullah allies in Lebanon through Turkey.
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