The War Against Israel: 1948 to Present

[BlandOatmeal]

THE ROLE OF RUSSIA IN THE MIDDLE EAST

I have already alluded to the fact that Turkey is pulling away from involvement with European ties such as the EU and NATO, and pursuing a closer relationship with Russia, China and Iran. The following statement from Turkish PM Edrogan exemplifies this shift:

""I recently said to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin: ‘Take us into the Shanghai Five. Take us and we will say goodbye to the EU.' What's the point of stalling?” Erdoğan said, referring to the SCO by its previous name."

-- China welcomes Turkish bid for SCO membership

Turkey's position is critical for long-term Russian planning, because Turkey controls Russia's access to the Mediterranean from the Black Sea -- in particular, to Russia's only naval base there, Tartus in Syria (see map below).

According to Asharq Al-Awsat,
​

"Russia’s chief naval base is located in Sebastopol in the Crimean Peninsula which is part of Ukraine. The lease for that base expires in 2017, although an accord to extend it for a further 25 years has been initialed by Moscow and Kiev. If Ukraine asks Russia to leave the Crimean, Moscow would effectively cease having a blue water navy. This is why Tartus is important as an alternative base."

-- Loading...

An article from last July elaborates on Russia's dilemna:

"At present Russia lacks the ships to retain a permanent presence of combat vessels in Tartus – Russia’s only overseas military base outside the borders of the former Soviet Union. A Black Sea Fleet repair and maintenance ship is permanently moored in Tartus to offer aid in case a Russian warship needs urgent repairs. Two times a year, the maintenance ship sails back to Sevastopol from Tartus, to be replaced for the following half year by another similar naval support vessel. The land-based Russian naval garrison in Tartus is 50 men strong. According to the Russian naval command, this month, tugboats of the Black Sea Fleet pulled a new floating pier into Tartus to expand its docking capability. Yet, Russian combat ships visit Tartus only several times a year, and then stay for just a day or two (RIA Novosti, July 20)."

-- The Jamestown Foundation: single[tt_news]=39715

With Turkey and Russia backing different horses in the Syrian conflict, there is an obvious problem: Russia depends on Syria for its only overseas base, in Tartus; yet it depends on the good will of Turkey in order to get to that base. Now, wouldn't it be lovely for Russia, if Turkey and Syria were on the same side. The key to this relationship seems to be the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, cited above. That council, which has staged joint military maneuvers, has reached out to both Turkey and Iran (see map):

BEIJING, June 7 (Xinhua) -- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has decided to grant Afghanistan observer status [blue], and accept Turkey as a dialogue partner [violet], Chinese President Hu Jintao said on Thursday. -- Shanghai Cooperation Organization Accepts Turkey as Dialogue Partner
​

The major obstacle, once Turkey and Iran have joined the SCO, seems to be getting rid of Bashar Assad. Russia seems willing to coax things in that direction:

"While Russian officials voiced objections to Israeli attacking Syria, they also apparently omitted to forewarn President Assad of what was coming and he was taken by surprise. After the raid, President Vladimir Putin advised the Syrian ruler to refrain from exacerbating the military situation with Israel."

-- Obama green light for Israel to strike Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah military links

Does any of this mean that Russia is "Magog" of Ezekiel 38-39, as so many insist? I doubt it. Russia is not mentioned in ANY prophecy, and definitely not in Ezekiel; and there is no reason to believe that they would want to become mired, Afghanistan-style, in such an adventure. Far more likely, is that Russia and the US will become involved in yet another proxy war, with the Russians backing Turkey and the Americans backing Israel ("leading from behind", of course, as President Obama likes to say, with "no boots on the ground").

Shalom shalom

PS While looking at Map #1, you might notice that Iran borders Turkey. If Bashar Assad were to lose most of Syria and become confined to say, the Alawite stronghold near Syria's coast, Iran could continue to supply its Hizbullah allies in Lebanon through Turkey.

 

[BlandOatmeal]

DON'T EXPECT OPEN WAR THIS WEEK

Don't expect open war this week, between Israel on the one hand, and Iran, Syria and Hizbullah on the other. Israel's Chief of Staff is meeting in Washington for five days with his US counterpart. I don't expect any major initiatives by Israel while he's here; and the fact that he's here probably indicates that Israel doesn't expect much action by its enemies either -- not this week. Next week? That's another story.

REF: IDF chief Gantz visits Washington - Israel News, Ynetnews

That's about it for substantive news from the area. Everything else seems pretty much as I've reported in previous posts. There are all sorts of violence and so-called "war crimes" going on in the area -- suicide bombing killing dozens in N. Iraq, assassination in Turkey, police beating demonstrator in Egypt, etc.; but these cannot be blamed on Israel, so there is little interest in the matters. Meanwhile, Zeus' Temple is being repaired in Athens, raising not one eyebrow in the international community, while the Jewish Temple in Jerusalem continues to lie in ruin and to be desecrated daily. I guess that sums up the world's attitude toward Israel: not a news item; just a continuing, silent, statement.

 

[BlandOatmeal]

TAKING A STEP BACK TO SEE WHAT'S GOING ON

I started making my usual daily rounds of checking out items in the press relevant to Israel and its neighbors, when I started seeing, mixed in with an incredible amount of propaganda and disinformation from all sides, the "fact" that Israel had established a "No Fly Zone" over Syria. It didn't take much digging, to see that all the sites carrying this "fact" got it from always-first-and-sometimes-accurate DEBKA. Digging a little further, I see that the Israelis Turks and Lebanese all seem to be concerned primarily with local and economic issues. There isn't any "no fly zone" going on, so far as I can see: Syria seems intent on smuggling Iranian arms into Lebanon for use against Israel, and Israel seems intent on interdicting them. That looks very, very, very much like business as usual, and I don't expect a REAL "no fly zone" being imposed by Israel, Turkey, NATO or the UN any time soon.

That said, this seems to be an appropriate time to step back and see some of the pertinent facts BEHIND the latest stories. Let's begin, with whom we can believe. Below is a map of freedom of the press in the area: The color coding ranges from fairly free (yellow) to ridiculously repressive (black):

Image source: Tikun olam

Notice that Cyprus is yellow; Israel, Lebanon and Kuwait are orange, and forget the rest. The little red enclaves inside Israel reprewsent the Arab Palestinian areas, the home of "Pallywood". Saudi Arabia, of course, home of most of the 9/11 bombers, has no idea whatever what "freedom" means, let alone "press"; and partners-in-crime Syria and Iran are in the same category.

That ought to put in perspective, so-called "news" from the area. For cross-referencing, the "big picture" is shown below:

Source: http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/press%20freedom%20index

While we're on the subject of indicators, a quick look at the 2012 "corruption index" ought to shock any doubters into the reality of what we're up against:

Source: http://75hellerromantimemachine.wikispaces.com/Hanson+X

You can't make out Israel's color at this scale. They come in at 60/100 non-corrupt, a little ahead of Poland, which, at 58/100, is orange. The US doesn't do all that much better, at 73/100. The Syrians and Iranians, meanwhile, do so much business under the table that they have no need of chairs (hence the fame of Persian carpets, I imagine).

Other "index" maps follow a similar pattern. As Arutz7 Radio's Jay Shapiro repeatedly reminds his listeners, the major problem that many people have concerning Israel is that they don't realize the "Middle East" is not the "Middle West".

Now, let's get back to see if there is a "no fly zone" over part or all of Syria. There technically isn't; but if and Israeli source such as DEBKA says there is, I would say that there's at least SOME truth to it.

Shalom shalom

PS. In terms of Bible Prophecy, the Ezekiel 38-39 Coalition stands out on the "Press Freedom" map:

1. Turkey (Magog, Gomer, Meschech, Tubal and Togarmah are all in Turkey): RED
2. Iran (Persia): BLACK
3. Sudan (Cush): BLACK
4. Libya (Phut): RED

 

[BlandOatmeal]

ZECHARIAH 14 TODAY

I hate posting one good post right after another, knowing that they will quickly get scrolled out of view, before being periodically purged completely by CF. Nevertheless, I post, in the honest belief that YOU, my elect viewing audience, have been ordained by God to read these posts, absorb them, and change the world forever. That said, here goes my second great post for the day:

"Quick quiz. An inquiry set up by the UN Human Rights Council has just released a draft report condemning:

• A) Iran
• B) China
• C) Sri Lanka
• D) Israel

"The answer, of course, is D — Israel. This is yet another UN document that deserves to be filed in the same dustbin as the ugly and discredited Goldstone report. Never mind Iran, China, Sri Lanka et al. As the Geneva-based monitoring group, UN Watch, points out, since the UN set up its “reformed” Human Rights Council in 2006, “there have been seven one-sided inquiry missions on Israel, and only five on the rest of the world combined. Mass atrocities committed by Iran, China, or Sri Lanka, for example, have never been subjected to a single HRC inquiry.”

-- The Rosett Report » The UN Bigotry Machine

The "United Nations", as I have noted earlier, is aptly called the "United Gentiles", seeing that "nations" and "gentiles" are the same word in Hebrew. In Zechariah 14, we have the UN attacking Israel:

Zech 14
[1] Behold, the day of the LORD cometh, and thy spoil shall be divided in the midst of thee.
[2] For I will gather all nations against Jerusalem to battle; and the city shall be taken, and the houses rifled, and the women ravished; and half of the city shall go forth into captivity, and the residue of the people shall not be cut off from the city.
[3] Then shall the LORD go forth, and fight against those nations, as when he fought in the day of battle.

That passage is about the FINAL battle before the End-Times coming of MESSIAH. A similar passage is in

Rev 13
[1] And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.
[2] And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.
[3] And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.
[4] And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?
[5] And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.
[6] And he opened his mouth in blasphemy against God, to blaspheme his name, and his tabernacle, and them that dwell in heaven.
[7] And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.
[8] And all that dwell upon the earth shall worship him, whose names are not written in the book of life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world.

That beast, who comes out of the "Sea" (which, from Israel's point of view is the Mediterranean, and, beyond that, the Atlantic Ocean), also has his heyday ended abruptly by the end-times coming of Messiah. The attack on Israel by the UN, therefore, mentioned in Zech 14, will be LED BY the Beast from the Sea -- which, if you know your geography, is NATO.

I mention this article here, because I have just posted several maps, one of which was the "Corruption Index" map:

When I posted this map, I noted that the "Ezekiel 38-39" coalition of Turkey, Iran, Sudan and Libya, is among the most corrupt and least free countries of the world. Its main backers, by the way, namely, Russia and China, are also in that category.

Those are certainly the fellows in "black hats", the very ones who have turned the UN into an Anti-Israel club. It is those "black hats" (not to be confused with Haredi Jews, who also wear black hats) who will attack Israel according to Ezek 38-39. The Rev. 13 coalition, on the other hand, which will lead the FINAL attack on Israel, are the "WHITE HAT" countries -- the relatively corruption-free countries of the world with long, stable histories, freedoms of every sort and a society marked by honesty.

It is this great difference between these two coalitions, that most graphically shows that the Ezekiel 38-39 attack on Israel, led by junior NATO member Turkey, is NOT the Zech 14 and Rev 13 attack, led by the older members of NATO.

Just as a refresher from my earlier posts, these older, principal members can be numbered 10, as in the ten horns of the beast they represent:

1. The US of America
2. The UK of Gr Britain & N Ireland
3. France
4. Italy
5. Canada
6. Belgium
7. Denmark
8. Netherlands
9. Norway
10. Portugal

That list can be rearranged, according to one's understanding; but there is little doubt that it includes the principal Western military powers: The US, Britain and France. These are the countries that have been the principal IMPLEMENTERS of UN military adventures, such as those in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya; and the preponderance of scriptural evidence indicates that they will also lead the final attack against Israel.

The irony, of course, is that the "Good Guys", or "White Hats" of today will be arrayed against God's Chosen People. This is the culmination of the great deception of the days we live in.

 

[BlandOatmeal]

If we are to make sense of current events, how they affect our lives, and how we are to respond to them, we must attempt to put them into Biblical context. The one scripture, more than any other, that describes the times we are living in, is Rev 17:

Rev 17
[8] The beast that thou sawest was, and is not; and shall ascend out of the bottomless pit, and go into perdition: and they that dwell on the earth shall wonder, whose names were not written in the book of life from the foundation of the world, when they behold the beast that was, and is not, and yet is.
[9] And here is the mind which hath wisdom. The seven heads are seven mountains, on which the woman sitteth.
[10] And there are seven kings: five are fallen, and one is, and the other is not yet come; and when he cometh, he must continue a short space.
[11] And the beast that was, and is not, even he is the eighth, and is of the seven, and goeth into perdition.
[12] And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast.
[13] These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto the beast.
[14] These shall make war with the Lamb, and the Lamb shall overcome them: for he is Lord of lords, and King of kings: and they that are with him are called, and chosen, and faithful.
[15] And he saith unto me, The waters which thou sawest, where the harlot sitteth, are peoples, and multitudes, and nations, and tongues.
[16] And the ten horns which thou sawest upon the beast, these shall hate the harlot, and shall make her desolate and naked, and shall eat her flesh, and burn her with fire.
[17] For God hath put in their hearts to fulfil his will, and to agree, and give their kingdom unto the beast, until the words of God shall be fulfilled.
[18] And the woman which thou sawest is that great city, which reigneth over the kings of the earth.

Let me take the elements, one at a time:

1. The beast described is the supreme end-times ruler on the earth, who shall make war with the Lamb (Rev 19:14) AND against Israel (Zech 14): for in both cases, the battle with this entity immediately precedes the Messianic Age.

2. The beast is identified with the Roman Empire, which "reigneth over the kings of the earth" during the time of the prophecy. Moreover, that Roman Empire was to go though some transformations:

• The first phase is the Empire as extant in John's time
• The second phase is the Empire that succeeded this one. This was the Holy Roman Empire, which was thought to be the legitimate successor of the first through the forged "Donation of Constantine".
• The third phase was to be the reign of ten kings who ruled at the same time as one another. This would represent the descendants of the Holy Roman Empire, either physical or allegorical, which would still be in power during the time of "the beast that was, and is not, even he is the eighth, and is of the seven, and goeth into perdition"
• The fourth phase was to be the reign of the "beast itself", to whom the ten would give their power and authority.

I have been vexed for some 40 years, trying to exactly identify the ten horns. The most salient scripture is a parallel passage in Daniel:

Danl 7
[7] After this I saw in the night visions, and behold a fourth beast, dreadful and terrible, and strong exceedingly; and it had great iron teeth: it devoured and brake in pieces, and stamped the residue with the feet of it: and it was diverse from all the beasts that were before it; and it had ten horns.
[8] I considered the horns, and, behold, there came up among them another little horn, before whom there were three of the first horns plucked up by the roots: and, behold, in this horn were eyes like the eyes of man, and a mouth speaking great things.
[9] I beheld till the thrones were cast down, and the Ancient of days did sit, whose garment was white as snow, and the hair of his head like the pure wool: his throne was like the fiery flame, and his wheels as burning fire...

[16] I came near unto one of them that stood by, and asked him the truth of all this. So he told me, and made me know the interpretation of the things.
[17] These great beasts, which are four, are four kings, which shall arise out of the earth.
[18] But the saints of the most High shall take the kingdom, and possess the kingdom for ever, even for ever and ever.
[19] Then I would know the truth of the fourth beast, which was diverse from all the others, exceeding dreadful, whose teeth were of iron, and his nails of brass; which devoured, brake in pieces, and stamped the residue with his feet;
[20] And of the ten horns that were in his head, and of the other which came up, and before whom three fell; even of that horn that had eyes, and a mouth that spake very great things, whose look was more stout than his fellows.
[21] I beheld, and the same horn made war with the saints, and prevailed against them;
[22] Until the Ancient of days came, and judgment was given to the saints of the most High; and the time came that the saints possessed the kingdom.
[23] Thus he said, The fourth beast shall be the fourth kingdom upon earth, which shall be diverse from all kingdoms, and shall devour the whole earth, and shall tread it down, and break it in pieces.
[24] And the ten horns out of this kingdom are ten kings that shall arise: and another shall rise after them; and he shall be diverse from the first, and he shall subdue three kings.
[25] And he shall speak great words against the most High, and shall wear out the saints of the most High, and think to change times and laws: and they shall be given into his hand until a time and times and the dividing of time.
[26] But the judgment shall sit, and they shall take away his dominion, to consume and to destroy it unto the end.
[27] And the kingdom and dominion, and the greatness of the kingdom under the whole heaven, shall be given to the people of the saints of the most High, whose kingdom is an everlasting kingdom, and all dominions shall serve and obey him.

Obviously, I am interested in "and another shall rise after them; and he shall be diverse from the first, and he shall subdue three kings".

From this passage, we have another sequence:

• Firstly, we have the ten kings, which I take to be great powers at the time of the ascension of the "little horn". These kings need to have ruled, moreover, when the "little horn" was still small.
• Secondly, three of these kings must be plucked up by the new imperial power.

There was a point in time, when these two phenomena came together: namely, the end of WWII. The three "plucked up" powers were therefore probably Germany, Italy and Japan; and the "Little Horn" was the United States. After the war, a group of those formerly great powers gave their "power and authority" to the Little Horn, in the form of NATO.

This helps us to identify the ten horns. Three of them were obviously

• Germany
• Italy
• Austria (or Japan)

The others were countries that were powerful, both (1) when the US was very small (1783, when its independence was recognized) and (2) at the start of WWII.

Powerful nations in 1781 (and their status in 1945):

• Britain
• France
• Russia (which became the nucleus of the Soviet Union in 1917)
• Austria* (divided after WWI into Austria, Czechoslovakia, etc.)
• Prussia (became Germany)
• the Netherlands (from whence came Belgium* in 1830)
• Spain
• Naples (absorbed by Italy in 1860)
• Bavaria (absorbed by Germany in 1866)
• Denmark
• Papacy (absorbed by Italy in 1866)
• Portugal
• Savoy (became Italy in 1860)
• Saxony (absorbed by Germany in 1866)
• Sweden
• Ottoman Empire (became Turkey in 1923)
• Würtemberg (absorbed by Germany in 1866)

*Austria has not joined NATO. In 1781, it included Belgium, Luxembourg and much of Italy, as well as what was to become the Austro-Hungarian Empire. For our purposes, we can consider Belgium to be the appropriate successor state. Belgium became a world power, when King Leopold I was granted what is now the Democratic Republic of the Congo as his personal fief. This was later taken over by the government of Belgium. After WWI, Rwanda and Burundi were added to Belgium's possessions from the former German East Africa. Austria never had an overseas empire. Japan did have such an empire, however, and is part of an extended NATO through its bilateral alliance with the US. If Japan is counted as one of the ten, then another country must be eliminated. This is where interpretation gets difficult, and I do not claim to have solved the problem.

Notice that I have highlighted the current NATO members above, in red. They total ten countries, altogether. The situation reflects contidions that formed between 1945, when the US became the paramount world power, and 1982, when Spain was admitted to NATO.

The "beast that came out of the sea" is thus with us today; it is a group of nations, led by the US. The ANTICHRIST, however, is an individual: He will persecute the church for 3½ years, before being defeated in the Zech 14 campaign. The Ezekiel 38-39 event must necessarily come before this, at least seven years before the end. Since Turkey is the key player in that struggle, and Turkey has yet to definitively ally itself with Iran, that event has not happened yet; but it may come soon.

Shalom shalom

 

[kenvin]

Maps so many maps. it must be true.

 

[BlandOatmeal]

Maps so many maps. it must be true.

"it"?

 

[kenvin]

"it"?

The conspiracy against Isreal.

 

[BlandOatmeal]

The conspiracy against Isreal.

Kevin, you label yourself as a "Christian", yet you seem to be in doubt about the Bible. I don't know exactly where you're coming from. Some of the main doubts you may have are:

1. You don't believe in the Bible? In that case, I would suggest that you seriously consider what you DO believe in; because what you believe in rules your life.

2. You don't believe the Jews of today are the Jews of the Bible? I could prove, by many proofs, that they are. I am descended of Jews, specifically of Moses' brother Aaron, and have taken a good deal of interest in this matter. Even if this were not true, the conspiriacy the Bible talks about is specifically against the city of Jerusalem, the land of present-day Israel, and the ruler of that land. That doesn't require any proof, other than a look, as you have said, at the map.

3. You aren't aware that the scriptures explicitly talk about conspiracies against Israel? Here you are:

Pss 2
[1] Why do the heathen rage, and the people imagine a vain thing?
[2] The kings of the earth set themselves, and the rulers take counsel together, against the LORD, and against his anointed, saying,
[3] Let us break their bands asunder, and cast away their cords from us.
[4] He that sitteth in the heavens shall laugh: the Lord shall have them in derision.
[5] Then shall he speak unto them in his wrath, and vex them in his sore displeasure.
[6] Yet have I set my king upon my holy hill of Zion.

Does that require decipherment? This is an English translation, of course; in Hebrew, vs.1-2 say:

Psa 2
א למה רגשׁו גוים ולאמים יהגו ריק׃
ביתיצבו מלכי ארץ ורוזנים נוסדו יחד על יהוה ועל משׁיחו׃

I'll translate the words for you:

למה רגשׁו גוים lit. "Why do nations rage?" (גוים literally means "nations". The Bible says that the Jews are not to be counted among the nations, but are to stand alone. The translators took a great liberty in translating this as "heathen", which means, literally, "country bumpkins" -- from a time when covens of pagan worshippers were in the countryside, and churchgoers imagined that those were the true "non-Jews". This reflected the biases of William Tyndale and others of his time; but the original simply meant "nations".)

ולאמים יהגו ריק lit. "The peoples plot that which is futile." The word אמים here is wrongly translated as "people". It is actually "peoples", meaning "people groups". This indicates that not only are the rulers involved, but the citizens as well.

יתיצבו מלכי ארץ lit. "Kings of the earth take their stand."

ורוזנים נוסדו יחד lit. "Nobles counsel together"

על יהוה lit. "Against יהוה" The word used for "the LORD" in this case specifically refers to the God of Abraham, Isaac and Israel, not some universalist concept.

ועל משׁיחו lit. "Against His anointed". The word for "anointed" is literally "messiah", but does not refer to THE Messiah. It is a generic term, indicating those whom God has designated. It was used in the Bible to describe prophets, kings and priests. In the context, it refers to the king of Israel.

There you have scriptural evidence of "conspiriacies" against Israel and against Israel's leaders. They exist, and have always existed. Psalms 2 tells us, moreover, that these conspiriacies are not just against Israel; they are against the GOD of Israel.

If you want more discussion on these matters, I will be happy to oblige. I love honest Bible studies.

Shalom shalom

 

[BlandOatmeal]

"Syrian opposition reports intense fighting near Jordan

"Residents search for survivors under the rubble in al-Ansari neighborhood of Aleppo after air forces loyal to Assad struck the area. (Photo: Reuters)
5 February 2013 /BEIRUT/DAMASCUS – REUTERS, AP
Syrian opposition and Jordanian security officials said on Tuesday intense fighting had broken out near Syrian government installations and border posts near Jordan, leaving 17 civilians wounded..."

-- Syrian opposition reports intense fighting near Jordan

This is serious, since "near Jordan" also means "near Israel". Assad is losing control of his border regions. Israel was already in danger from Syrian and Iranian weapons going into southern Lebanon; now it is in danger of attack from Al-Qaeda- and Muslim-Brotherhood- affiliated rebel groups, who are less likely than Assad to show restraint in attacking Israel. This makes Israeli intervention in southern Syria more and more likely.

 

[interpreter]

THE ROLE OF RUSSIA IN THE MIDDLE EAST

I have already alluded to the fact that Turkey is pulling away from involvement with European ties such as the EU and NATO, and pursuing a closer relationship with Russia, China and Iran. The following statement from Turkish PM Edrogan exemplifies this shift:

""I recently said to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin: ‘Take us into the Shanghai Five. Take us and we will say goodbye to the EU.' What's the point of stalling?” Erdoğan said, referring to the SCO by its previous name."

-- China welcomes Turkish bid for SCO membership

Turkey's position is critical for long-term Russian planning, because Turkey controls Russia's access to the Mediterranean from the Black Sea -- in particular, to Russia's only naval base there, Tartus in Syria (see map below).

According to Asharq Al-Awsat,
​

"Russia’s chief naval base is located in Sebastopol in the Crimean Peninsula which is part of Ukraine. The lease for that base expires in 2017, although an accord to extend it for a further 25 years has been initialed by Moscow and Kiev. If Ukraine asks Russia to leave the Crimean, Moscow would effectively cease having a blue water navy. This is why Tartus is important as an alternative base."

-- Loading...

An article from last July elaborates on Russia's dilemna:

"At present Russia lacks the ships to retain a permanent presence of combat vessels in Tartus – Russia’s only overseas military base outside the borders of the former Soviet Union. A Black Sea Fleet repair and maintenance ship is permanently moored in Tartus to offer aid in case a Russian warship needs urgent repairs. Two times a year, the maintenance ship sails back to Sevastopol from Tartus, to be replaced for the following half year by another similar naval support vessel. The land-based Russian naval garrison in Tartus is 50 men strong. According to the Russian naval command, this month, tugboats of the Black Sea Fleet pulled a new floating pier into Tartus to expand its docking capability. Yet, Russian combat ships visit Tartus only several times a year, and then stay for just a day or two (RIA Novosti, July 20)."

-- The Jamestown Foundation: single[tt_news]=39715

With Turkey and Russia backing different horses in the Syrian conflict, there is an obvious problem: Russia depends on Syria for its only overseas base, in Tartus; yet it depends on the good will of Turkey in order to get to that base. Now, wouldn't it be lovely for Russia, if Turkey and Syria were on the same side. The key to this relationship seems to be the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, cited above. That council, which has staged joint military maneuvers, has reached out to both Turkey and Iran (see map):

BEIJING, June 7 (Xinhua) -- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has decided to grant Afghanistan observer status [blue], and accept Turkey as a dialogue partner [violet], Chinese President Hu Jintao said on Thursday. -- Shanghai Cooperation Organization Accepts Turkey as Dialogue Partner
​

The major obstacle, once Turkey and Iran have joined the SCO, seems to be getting rid of Bashar Assad. Russia seems willing to coax things in that direction:

"While Russian officials voiced objections to Israeli attacking Syria, they also apparently omitted to forewarn President Assad of what was coming and he was taken by surprise. After the raid, President Vladimir Putin advised the Syrian ruler to refrain from exacerbating the military situation with Israel."

-- Obama green light for Israel to strike Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah military links

Does any of this mean that Russia is "Magog" of Ezekiel 38-39, as so many insist? I doubt it. Russia is not mentioned in ANY prophecy, and definitely not in Ezekiel; and there is no reason to believe that they would want to become mired, Afghanistan-style, in such an adventure. Far more likely, is that Russia and the US will become involved in yet another proxy war, with the Russians backing Turkey and the Americans backing Israel ("leading from behind", of course, as President Obama likes to say, with "no boots on the ground").

Shalom shalom

PS While looking at Map #1, you might notice that Iran borders Turkey. If Bashar Assad were to lose most of Syria and become confined to say, the Alawite stronghold near Syria's coast, Iran could continue to supply its Hizbullah allies in Lebanon through Turkey.

Moscow is Babylon the great harlot who sits on 7 hills and many waters (5 seas). Moscow will probably be on the wrong side in the Battle of Ar Mageddon, now unfolding.

 

[BlandOatmeal]

Moscow is Babylon the great harlot who sits on 7 hills and many waters (5 seas). Moscow will probably be on the wrong side in the Battle of Ar Mageddon, now unfolding.

Show me where the Bible actually SAYS that Moscow is Babylon, and I will listen to you. What you're proposing is "pop prophecy", which I am not afraid to call FALSE prophecy. It caters to the sensual. Americans want to be the "good guys", and want the Russians, our erstwhile enemies, to be the "bad guys". This does not have a basis in the Bible, but in our own carnal nature. By proliferating such prophecies, modern false prophets such as Hal Lindsey are putting out red herrings (very RED, indeed, as in "Commie") that lead people away from the simple truth of the scripture. They are doing this for personal gain; and Hal Lindsey, for one, has certainly gained a great deal in book royalties and speaking fees.

"In a later book, entitled, The 1980s: Countdown to Armageddon, he indicated that he believed it was possible that the battle of Armageddon could take place in the not too distant future, stating, "the decade of the 1980s could very well be the last decade of history as we know it." He noted again that there is no reference to the U.S. in bible prophecy. He listed a few scenarios that seemed plausible to him at the time: (1) A takeover by communists, (2) destruction by a surprise Soviet nuclear attack, or (3) becoming a dependent of the 10-nation European community. The book was on the NY Times bestseller list for over 20 weeks."

-- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Lindsey

Hal Lindsey -- yet another false prophet
​

I've heard all there is to hear on this, Interpreter: People saying Russia is Gog, Russia is Rome, the Ten Horns are Arab countries, the Lost Tribes are Europeans, the British monarchs are descended from David. It's all HOGWASH, because it's not in the Bible.

There's a prescription in "The Teaching of the Twelve Apostles", a book with wide circulation in the early church:

"Now, as regards the apostles and prophets, act strictly according to the precept of the Gospel. Upon his arrival every apostle must be welcomed as the Lord; but he must not stay except one day. In case of necessity, however, he may stay the next day also; but if he stays three days, he is a false prophet. At his departure, the apostle must receive nothing except food to last till the next night;s lodging; but IF HE ASKS FOR MONEY, HE IS A FALSE PROPHET."

-- Quasten, Rev. Johannes and Plumpe, Rev. Joseph, "Ancient Christian Writers: the Works of the Fathers in Translation", Paulist Press (1948)

Either you are a false prophet yourself, Interpreter, making money from your craft, or you have been deceived by others such as Hal Lindsey. I will discuss the scriptures here, within the confines set by CF; but I will not give credit to unfounded speculations. America is not the White Horse of Christ; we do not fight his battles for him, Russia is not Babylon. If these things are in the Bible, show me; and support what you say with multiple scriptures. Otherwise, I do not recommend that anyone heed what you say on the matter.

 

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"Ahmadinejad lands in Cairo 4-6 months before Iran reaches nuclear capacity.
DEBKAfile Special Report February 5, 2013, 1:04 PM (GMT+02:00)

"As Israel’s old and new parties face off in the haggling for places in Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s third government coalition, they are missing hectic events in the background which spell big trouble on their country’s back, front and side doors. This was heralded not least by the arrival in Cairo Tuesday, Feb. 5, of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his offer of a pact with Egypt to “solve the Palestinian problem,” which in his terms means “wiping Israel off the map.”"

-- Ahmadinejad lands in Cairo 4-6 months before Iran reaches nuclear capacity.

I don't put much stock in Egypt joining a pro-Iranian bloc. I don't foresee anything for Egypt in the coming years, other than chaos, trouble and confusion.

Turkey, meanwhile, has been backpedaling on its new "Eastward" orientation. It's apparently still trying to wiggle its way into the EU, using interest in the SCO as a bit of arm-twisting. My money in THAT department, however, is on the eastward shift. I wonder about Russia and China, though. The US seems to be trying to set China up as the world's bogeyman; and Russia, which is connected with China through the SCO seems to still be wavering between East and West. China, meanwhile, does not seem all that eager to oblige Washington and get into a contest: They have yet to give significant military support, for instance, to Iran. India, meanwhile, seems to be firmly in America's grasp because of its rivalry with Pakistan (a staunch Chinese ally). Whatever happens on the Chinese end of things, I expect Turkey to continue to gravitate toward her; because the EU is in such a fix, I don't expect them to be able to accommodate Turkey's ardent overtures.

US President Obama plans to visit Israel this year, though I'm not sure why. I have a sneaking suspicion that he will want to try to convince Israel to cool its jets yet again concerning Iran, and to offer to give up land to the Palestinian Arabs in exchange for nothing, all in exchange for US help concerning Syria. A high-profile publicity stunt, I think; because events will be driven by Iran unless Israel takes the initiative; and the Palestinian Arabs have nothing to offer anyone, other than a pain in their anatomy.

 

[Supreme]

"Ahmadinejad lands in Cairo 4-6 months before Iran reaches nuclear capacity.
DEBKAfile Special Report February 5, 2013, 1:04 PM (GMT+02:00)

"As Israel’s old and new parties face off in the haggling for places in Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s third government coalition, they are missing hectic events in the background which spell big trouble on their country’s back, front and side doors. This was heralded not least by the arrival in Cairo Tuesday, Feb. 5, of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his offer of a pact with Egypt to “solve the Palestinian problem,” which in his terms means “wiping Israel off the map.”"

-- Ahmadinejad lands in Cairo 4-6 months before Iran reaches nuclear capacity.

I don't put much stock in Egypt joining a pro-Iranian bloc. I don't foresee anything for Egypt in the coming years, other than chaos, trouble and confusion.

Turkey, meanwhile, has been backpedaling on its new "Eastward" orientation. It's apparently still trying to wiggle its way into the EU, using interest in the SCO as a bit of arm-twisting. My money in THAT department, however, is on the eastward shift. I wonder about Russia and China, though. The US seems to be trying to set China up as the world's bogeyman; and Russia, which is connected with China through the SCO seems to still be wavering between East and West. China, meanwhile, does not seem all that eager to oblige Washington and get into a contest: They have yet to give significant military support, for instance, to Iran. India, meanwhile, seems to be firmly in America's grasp because of its rivalry with Pakistan (a staunch Chinese ally). Whatever happens on the Chinese end of things, I expect Turkey to continue to gravitate toward her; because the EU is in such a fix, I don't expect them to be able to accommodate Turkey's ardent overtures.

US President Obama plans to visit Israel this year, though I'm not sure why. I have a sneaking suspicion that he will want to try to convince Israel to cool its jets yet again concerning Iran, and to offer to give up land to the Palestinian Arabs in exchange for nothing, all in exchange for US help concerning Syria. A high-profile publicity stunt, I think; because events will be driven by Iran unless Israel takes the initiative; and the Palestinian Arabs have nothing to offer anyone, other than a pain in their anatomy.

Egypt deplores Iran's treatment of Sunnis, and Iran (naturally) dislikes Egypt because it is a Sunni power. And I just don't see Turkey having a major say in international affairs any time soon. It is trying to establish itself in the region, but as long as Israel exists, Turkey will always be second best.

 

[BlandOatmeal]

Egypt deplores Iran's treatment of Sunnis, and Iran (naturally) dislikes Egypt because it is a Sunni power. And I just don't see Turkey having a major say in international affairs any time soon. It is trying to establish itself in the region, but as long as Israel exists, Turkey will always be second best.

Hi, Supreme. You're certainly welcome to your opinion there. Turkey is so much larger than Israel in people and produictive capacity, that Israel is no match for it there. Turkey's navy also overwhelms Israel's in firepower, and it has an air force of about the same size. I don't believe Turkey has the national will nor the national cohesion to defeat Israel; but they seem quite serious about being willing to go to war with Israel at the drop of a hat.

I have been waiting for a time when the major obstacles to be taken out of Turkey's way here, namely, the civil war in Syria and Iran's backing of Assad. Turkey is a NATO ally of the US; but it did not ask for US permission to attack Cyprus in 1974, and it will not do so when it attacks Israel.

I just called Hal Lindsey a false prophet in the previous post (because he is selling Christ for profit, as most Christian leaders do. Doctrinally, he's not too far from me: He's adventist and zionist, as am I. The thing I see against him, which I do not believe is a minor thing, is that he has tailored his prophecies to please the middle-class, American, female evangelical audience he appeals to; and I would be incredulous to not believe profit was a motive.

Having said that, I want to say that I am not trying to appeal to any sort of audience, nor am I making a penny from my speculations. As for the Turks, the three Turks I have known in my life have been wonderful, friendly people; and I have no delusions about the Jews being anything other than rather ordinary people. The Bible says that the Land of Magog is probably Turkey; and in the past dozen years, the Turkish government has been marching on a steady course, more and more against Israel. The rest of the Ezekiel 38-39 coalition (Iran, Sudan, Libya) is also hotly against Israel, and working actively to destroy the Jews there. They seem not to require any prodding to go to war, just permission.

Shalom shalom

 

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TURKEY'S GEOPOLITICAL POSITION

If anyone just hopping unto this thread wonders what all the discussion has to do with the US, it is this: The war against Israel, which has been going on at a generally low level since the first cease-fires in the late 1940s, may erupt soon in a way that engulfs the whole world. This is likely to happen in stages, with the first being a regional war primarily between Turkey and Israel.

I proposed this scenario many years ago, but have been met largely with unbelief -- the main objection being that Turkey, which was then a secular state, was a close ally of Israel. Over the years, Turkey has moved from a close ally, to a very grudging co-ally with Israel of the US.

The other objection people gave to my proposals, was that Turkey doesn't even border on Israel: Syria was between them, and was not a friend of either. Syria is now in the process of meltdown, and Turkey may soon find itself face-to-face with Israel, with both being drawn into having to intervene in a chaotic and dangerous collapse of the Assad regime.

I don't have much time to devote to this issue at the moment, though I welcome input. The latest headline I see from Turkey is this:

Simmering disputes threaten Ankara-Washington honeymoon

US Ambassador Francis Ricciardone (C) is seen as he enters the Foreign Ministry building on Feb. 7, 2013. (Photo: AA, Ahmet İzgi)

Turkish-US ties have experienced perhaps one of their brightest periods since Barack Obama was first elected president in 2008, with the two NATO allies finding common ground on most foreign policy challenges rising from the troubled Middle East, but a series of recent spats -- some of which were made public -- may signal trouble in paradise...

-- Simmering disputes threaten Ankara-Washington honeymoon

The "end of the honeymoon" is not only with the US, but also with the EU, which has been wooing Turkey for 50 years but never popping the question. Turkey is looking eastward. The most obvious area this has been happening is in military affairs: On the one hand, Turkey has asked for and gotten Patriot missiles from the US, Germany and the Netherlands, along with crews of several hundred troops who have gotten a rather chilly welcome from the local populace. On the other hand, Turkey is planning joint military exercises this year not with the US, Germany and the Netherlands, but with Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Kazakhstan.

Granted, all those last-named countries are connected with NATO through the "Partnership for Peace." They are also linked in a mutual defense treaty with Russia, and have had friendly relations with Iran: Georgia invited the Iranians to be observers at a recent NATO drill in their country, and the Azeris have recently conducted border security exercises with Iran. Kazakhstan is a member of the Shanghai Security Organization (SCO), in Which Iran has observer status. Couple this with the fact that Turkey itself has recently become a dialog partner of the SCO, and the picture comes more into focus: Turkey and Washington have not just ended their honeymoon; they are considering divorce.

 

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"UN: Syrian exodus worsening, 5,000 flee each day

"About 5,000 refugees are fleeing Syria each day, seeking safe haven in neighboring countries, the United Nations refugee agency said on Friday..."

-- UN: Syrian exodus worsening, 5,000 flee ea... JPost - Middle East

These figures are from the UN, which apparently hasn't taken sides in this conflict, so I tend to believe it. Besides that number, there are many more displaced and homeless inside and outside Syria. In other related news, Assad's forces have just repelled a fierce rebel attack into Damascus itself with a massive armored counter-attack.

ANYONE except Israel could end this situation, simply by giving armor or air support tothe rebels; but nobody is. NATO is understandably reluctant, because the result will be either chaos or an Al Qaeda terrorist state. That is bound to happen with or without intervention, though, so it doesn't seem all that credible. Turkey could intervene in a trice, and get Western support; but I think they are terrified of probable Iranian and Kurdish reprisals. It's beginning to look as though, as with the Iranian nuke issue, the world is waiting for Israel to do the dirty work -- and to get all the blame.

US President Obama plans to visit Israel, and I think it ought to be sooner rather than later; because in a matter of weeks, the whole place could be in turmoil. The big hangup, it seems, is Netanyahu's unwillingness to form a government that does not include the religious. I don't think he has any sensible alternatives, and think he ought to get on with it. Obama can't visit Israel, if Israel doesn't have a government to talk to.

 

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STRATEGIC SITUATION RADICALLY CHANGING -- IN MIDDLE EAST, AND ALSO THE WORLD

The world's powers seem to be coming around to reality a bit, noticing for the first time that they are deeply in debt AND NEED TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

One example of this is the budget reduction process in the US: With no other solution in sight, the defense budget is finally being hacked; and one of the programs being eliminated is a pie-in-the-sky project with a scant benefit-to-cost ratio: our antimissile defense system. This includes the Patriot missiles stationed just a few weeks ago in Turkey, similar missiles in Israel, and the largely Israeli-built Iron Dome. The latter system was touted as a great success; but in fact, it allowed enough of the low-intensity missile barrage from Gaza get through to cause serious damage; and would be utterly useless against a barrage of 50,000 advanced Iranian missiles arrayed against Israel in Lebanon.

The Patriot missiles were supposed to protect Turkey and Europe from Syrian and Iranian attacks, which we now know they cannot do. The only thing those batteries have accomplished, it seems, is to antagonize the Russians who saw those missiles as directed against them. By abandoning the Patriot program, our defense department has at one time won favor with Moscow, and made at least some headway towards balancing our budget.

For all the benefit of this new to the US, what it means in the Middle East is that Israel and Turkey can no longer be lulled into complacency as the Iranians furiously pursue a nuclear weapons program that will be directed against both of them. On Israel's part, that means Israel must make serious plans to take out the Iranian program on its own, and the US has to seriously plan how to deal with the consequences in the Persian Gulf. I imagine that will be a MAJOR part of what US President Obama discusses with Israeli PM Netanyahu when the former visits Israel next month.

On Turkey's part, what all this means is that Turkey cannot rely on American protection as much as she might have thought she could; and that Turkey has to re-evaluate its policies towards neighbors such as Iran and Syria. Turkey may decide "If you can't beat them, join them", and put into high gear a push towards alliance with Iran that it has been haltingly edging towards for years.

For the US, what this means is some temporary relief from the burden of being the world's policeman -- a relief that won't last long, seeing that if Iran can launch a satellite big enough to hold a monkey plus life-support systems into high orbit, it can also deliver a nuclear warhead anywhere on earth -- including the US, which could be thrown back into the pre-industrial age through the detonation of just a few high-altitude EMP bursts (with casualties in the tens or hundreds of millions).

The latest:

"US withdrawal from Europe-based missile shield will impact Israel’s defense
DEBKAfile Special Report February 11, 2013, 12:05 AM (GMT+02:00)

""Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Sunday, Feb. 10 echoed supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rejection of direct talks with the US four days ago which he said were on the grounds that they “would solve nothing” because, "You are holding a gun against Iran.”

"Ahmadinejad added is own rider to this dismissal: “God willing, soon Iran’s satellite will be located in orbit at an altitude of 36,000 kilometers, next to others from four or five advanced powers and it will relay a message of peace and fidelity to the world,” he said.

The boast that Iran would soon be the world’s sixth space power came two weeks after Tehran claimed to have put a monkey in orbit around earth, although it did not report bringing back to earth either the space capsule or the monkey..."

-- US withdrawal from Europe-based missile shield will impact Israel’s defense

 

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"Monday, February 11, 2013
Upper Egypt threatened with possible plague of locusts: FAO

"Upper Egypt threatened with possible plague of locusts: FAO
United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) warns of major
locust infestation in Egypt's southeast following recent spate of heavy
rainfall"

-- IMRA - Monday, February 11, 2013 Upper Egypt threatened with possible plague of locusts: FAO

I DO NOT see this as an end-time locust plague, such as that prophesied against Israel in the latter days in the book of Joel. I DO see this as a potential major hit against an already tottering Egyptian economy, which is sure to increase political instability in that already unstable country.

 

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DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB AGAINST THE MUSLIM WORLD -- AND ALL OF US

An article by David Ignatius in the February 11, 2013 Web edition of Ya Libnan talks about a demographic nightmare hitting the Arab world in this generation, brought on by sharply dropping birth rates.

​

"...What’s “astonishing,” says Eberstadt in an email explaining his findings, is that in the Arab world, this move away from marriage “is by many measures already as far along as was Europe’s in the 1980s — and it is taking place at a vastly lower level of development than the corresponding flights in Europe and developed East Asia.”

"“Something really big is under way — and practically no one has noticed it, even in the Arab world,” argues Eberstadt.

"These studies are a reminder that the big demographic trends shaping the world are mysterious, and often overlooked. The Arab world may be experiencing a youth bulge now, fueling popular uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere. But as Eberstadt notes, what’s ahead over the next generation will probably be declines in the number of working-age adults and rapidly aging populations.'''"

Sharp decline in Muslim fertility rates | Ya Libnan | World News Live from Lebanon

Few have commented lately, that the "Arab Spring" riots that have turned the Middle East upside-down (not for the good), began as protests against the price of government-subsidized bread. As the economies of these countries continue to plummet (especially in Egypt and Syria), the problem can only get worse; and the 8th-Century mentality of the Islamic governments that are arising out of the ashes only exacerbate the matter.

This demographic crisis could not have come at a worse time for the Muslim world, and for the developed regions such as Europe and Japan, which are already being flooded by young Muslims working, often illegally, to support their aging parents back home.

Meanwhile, "Mexico's birth rate, once among the world's highest, is in free-fall" (cf Mexico's population: When the niños run out | The Economist), showing that a parallel situation is happening in the Western Hemisphere. Add all this to an out-of-control global sovereign debt crisis (largely fueled by falling tax revenues and growing social expenses due to the demographic crisis), and you have a world approaching a climax, probably within the coming decade.

I might note here, that the Black Death in Europe in the 1200s actually led to a period of prosperity, as the population was culled. The same might happen with a worldwide nuclear war. That's dark optimism, but sadly true.