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The Sun is shutting down , is another LIA coming ?

Discussion in 'Physical & Life Sciences' started by Greatcloud, Jan 8, 2009.

  1. Chalnoth

    Chalnoth Senior Contributor

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    What are you going on about? I asked where you got the 0.2C figure from.
     
  2. Greatcloud

    Greatcloud Senior Member

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    Excuse me I ment you're monthly temputure quote of .8+ was just weather.
     
  3. Chalnoth

    Chalnoth Senior Contributor

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    Yes, it is a short-term variation. But where did your 0.2C anomaly number come from, hmm? Because from every source of information I can find, this year so far is working up to be quite a cooker.
     
  4. Greatcloud

    Greatcloud Senior Member

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    Here is where I got it its a little dated but I believe these are the true figures. The actual fig. is 0.23


    [​IMG]
     
  5. Chalnoth

    Chalnoth Senior Contributor

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    You can see the raw data here:
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/uahncdc.lt

    It really isn't a good idea to draw too many conclusions from a single month. According to this data set, the current temperature anomaly is around .6C (it's been just about .6C since January).

    Edit: Here, I threw it together in a plot, complete with the 5-year running average:
    [​IMG]
    The upward trend is quite clear, and there's no evidence of it slowing or stopping.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2010
  6. Greatcloud

    Greatcloud Senior Member

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    Oh it will begin to drop, and this year too I believe. Globally speaking it could drop at any moment. Whose to say it hasn't after your chart came out. Then theres the southren hemisphere it is dropping fast in temperature and Antartica is dropping in temperature. I give it 3 months for the global temperature to drop again. it certainaly won't reach 1.0 in our lifetime. Quote me on this.
     
  7. Chalnoth

    Chalnoth Senior Contributor

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    Given that we have a strong El Nino this year, yes, the global temperature will drop shortly. We can't say precisely when, but this is a short-term peak. Of course, the overall trend is still increasing.

    You can view the current temperature anomaly here:
    AMSU-A Temperatures

    It's still as warm as ever. Like I said, this short-term warm period (due to the El Nino) won't last, but the overall long-term trend is still towards warming.

    The Southern Hemisphere isn't warming as rapidly, but it's still warming:
    [​IMG]
    Also, this year the temperature anomaly for Antarctica is definitely on the warm side:
    [​IMG]

    Given the current trend, we can expect the global temperature anomaly (as measured by Gistemp) to get around 1C in, very roughly, 30 years, give or take a decade. The UAH temperature anomaly has a higher offset due to the later start date, so obviously it'll take longer with that data set.

    According to this El Nino forecast, it looks like El Nino conditions may be weakening towards neutral conditions later in the year. So a short-term drop from the current highs within the next few months is reasonable.
     
    Frumious Bandersnatch likes this.
  8. Greatcloud

    Greatcloud Senior Member

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    The coming El ninos will be followed by a La Nina or two and then an El Nino. The El Ninos will outweigh the coming La Ninas. Its going to happen.
     
  9. Chalnoth

    Chalnoth Senior Contributor

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    The El Nino Southern Oscillation is just a phenomenon that affects short-term global temperature variations (on the order of about 5 years). It has no long-term impact. Even if El Ninos (or La Ninas) became more frequent, that would only lead to a very small overall offset in temperature. It wouldn't lead to a change in trend.
     
  10. Blayz

    Blayz New Member

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    In the same way the LIA which was the OP of this thread is going to happen?

    Recent solar data makes as much of a mockery of your original predictions as future climate data will make of your current ones, Greatcloud.
     
  11. Greatcloud

    Greatcloud Senior Member

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    Chalnoth you're a proponent of AGW , what do you see for the future ? Say in 10 years how much warming do you guess will be happening ? Give me an estimated figure.
     
  12. Chalnoth

    Chalnoth Senior Contributor

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    In ten years, the error bars are huge, due to the strength of short-term variations. However, very roughly, we should expect another ~0.12C of warming globally. The sea ice should also continue to collapse, and there's a distinct possibility (though definitely not a certainty, not yet) of one nearly ice-free summer in the arctic near the end of this time.
     
  13. Chalnoth

    Chalnoth Senior Contributor

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    Well, just saw a blog post over at Phil Plait's Bad Astronomy that reminded me of this thread, so I thought I'd engage in a little bit of necromancy. The post can be found here. In the post, he linked a video he prepared using Helioviewer:
    YouTube - ‪HUGE explosion on the Sun on June 7, 2011‬‏
    (Watch in high definition for the full impact)

    And the Sun is only starting to heat up.

    As for global temperatures, it's looking like my prediction of a short-term drop in temperatures is being borne out. I don't have any pretty plots, but you can see some of the more recent monthly temperature anomalies here:
    http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/crutem3vgl.txt

    Note that the temperatures for the second half of 2010 and the first half of 2011 are noticeably lower than the first half of 2010. This is no surprise, because the first half of 2010 had anomalously high temperatures. The rest of 2011 is likely to remain fairly mild (although still far above previous average temperatures).
     
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