Syria: Broken Nation

[LoveBeingAMuslimah]

The source isn't credible, it is completely bias. The casualty figures are inflated and they gloss over the atrocities committed by the rebels.

Why and how isn't it credible? Again, I should take the word of a random person on the internet who likely has no contacts in Syria and is contradicting the reports from various organizations who actually do have numerous people on the ground? No thanks.

Here's an infographic that uses another organization to show that the percentages attributed to each group for civilian deaths (between 2011-Jan 2015) are roughly the same even though they only include those people they can verify the names for:

Supporting Assad is rational and justified based upon the alternatives.

If you say that after going through this thread, there is nothing I can say to you.

There is nothing left to say to those who continue to dismiss, trivialize, excuse, ignore, and/or justify Assad's & his allies' atrocities. These include the chemical attacks ("never again"?) that continue up to this day, the barrel bombs, the cluster munitions, the intense starvation, the sectarian ethnic cleansing, the details that emerged about Assad's prisons early on (Caesar's photographs), the bombing of residential areas with no military targets, the bombing of hospitals, the attacking of first responders, the attacking of refugee camps, the shooting of peaceful protesters, the torture and mutilation of people (e.g. the regime cut off the penis of a 13-year old boy, shattered his knees and jaw, gave him cigarette burns, likely electrocuted and whipped him, and killed him), and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians.

 

[Landon Caeli]

The Syrian people will never accept Assad remaining

This is a good point. It makes me think that Russia wants Assad back in power so badly, because then the "problem" (Sunni refugees) will remain in Europe and other countries, and so Syria will be mainly a Shia nation.

...But I think the refugees should have a place in their homeland again, after the fighting is over. Which means Assad has got to go.

 

[Landon Caeli]

...That or Syria should be split into two. One side Assad, one side not. Which is why the West needs to get involved, and not just allow Russia to continue this bombing campaign. America, and other Western nations need better, smarter leadership.

 

[Douger]

This number has been given by a credible source (Syrian Network for Human Rights - used by the UN as well) who detail their methodology and I should just forget that because a random person on the internet told me it's hugely exaggerated without providing any proof? Riiiiight.

Even your own sources in your own posts debunk the claim of 200 thousand dead civilians. You just cited the Syrian Network for Human Rights. Their numbers are much lower than yours.

 

[football5680]

Why and how isn't it credible? Again, I should take the word of a random person on the internet who likely has no contacts in Syria and is contradicting the reports from various organizations who actually do have numerous people on the ground? No thanks.

It is a bias source. Would you trust an Israeli source to tell you about the Palestinians? Probably not because they are going to tell the story in a way that makes them the victims and the Palestinians the unjust aggressors and vice versa.

There is nothing left to say to those who continue to dismiss, trivialize, excuse, ignore, and/or justify Assad's & his allies' atrocities. These include the chemical attacks ("never again"?) that continue up to this day, the barrel bombs, the cluster munitions, the intense starvation, the sectarian ethnic cleansing, the details that emerged about Assad's prisons early on (Caesar's photographs), the bombing of residential areas with no military targets, the bombing of hospitals, the attacking of first responders, the attacking of refugee camps, the shooting of peaceful protesters, the torture and mutilation of people (e.g. the regime cut off the penis of a 13-year old boy, shattered his knees and jaw, gave him cigarette burns, likely electrocuted and whipped him, and killed him), and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians.

There is nothing left to say to those who continue to dismiss, trivialize, excuse, ignore, and/or justify the actions of the terrorists in Syria.

 

[Uncle Siggy]

America, and other Western nations need better, smarter leadership.

That would require educated voters, ain't gonna happen...

 

[LoveBeingAMuslimah]

Even your own sources in your own posts debunk the claim of 200 thousand dead civilians. You just cited the Syrian Network for Human Rights. Their numbers are much lower than yours.

? The infographic I posted contains information from VDC (Violation Documentation Center) which only includes those people for whom they can verify the names (and they try to include as much information about them as possible including their age, career, mother's name, etc.). Their updated stats now show 92k dead civilians for whom they documented the names. That they have different figures does not make the other organization wrong. The point was that regardless of the figures, the regime/allies are the main culprits (95% of the civilians killed have been due to them).

Syrian Network for Human Rights is also very meticulous in gathering data (read their methodology here). This infographic contains data from them from March 15, 2011-November 30th, 2015:

Both of these organizations state that the actual numbers are probably much higher because the regime often doesn't grant access to human rights organizations (e.g. after it commits massacres).

 

[LoveBeingAMuslimah]

“Russia cannot continue to sit at the table as a sponsor of the political process and at the same time be bombing the civilian areas of the groups of people we believe will be the backbone of the new Syria once Assad has gone,” Mr Hammond said. “The Russians cannot be both part of the political process and the key drivers of the military disaster happening on the ground." Kremlin is ‘prolonging’ war in Syria by bolstering Assad regime with air strikes, says Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond

More Western countries/politicians weigh in:

Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, said France condemned “the Syrian regime’s brutal offensive with support from Russia to surround and suffocate Aleppo”.

“France fully supports the [UN] special envoy’s decision to suspend negotiations to which neither Bashar al-Assad’s regime nor his allies clearly want to contribute in good faith, thus torpedoing peace efforts,” he added.

US State Department spokesman John Kirby said Russian air strikes targeted opponents of President Assad, rather than Islamic State militants. “It is difficult to see how strikes against civilian targets contribute in any way to the peace process now being explored,” Mr Kirby said.

Syria civil war: President Assad’s forces cut off last rebel supply line to Aleppo raising fears of huge humanitarian crisis

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

More Western countries/politicians weigh in:

Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, said France condemned “the Syrian regime’s brutal offensive with support from Russia to surround and suffocate Aleppo”.

“France fully supports the [UN] special envoy’s decision to suspend negotiations to which neither Bashar al-Assad’s regime nor his allies clearly want to contribute in good faith, thus torpedoing peace efforts,” he added.

US State Department spokesman John Kirby said Russian air strikes targeted opponents of President Assad, rather than Islamic State militants. “It is difficult to see how strikes against civilian targets contribute in any way to the peace process now being explored,” Mr Kirby said.

Syria civil war: President Assad’s forces cut off last rebel supply line to Aleppo raising fears of huge humanitarian crisis

In other words, "Wahhhh! My team is getting its butt kicked!"

As I've said, Russia's air strikes are effective. The Western powers are trying to stall them to buy the rebels time. The "peace process" they are pushing will only serve to prolong the war. Russia's peace process, on the other hand, is to help the government win the war.

 

[football5680]

In other words, "Wahhhh! My team is getting its butt kicked!"

As I've said, Russia's air strikes are effective. The Western powers are trying to stall them to buy the rebels time. The "peace process" they are pushing will only serve to prolong the war. Russia's peace process, on the other hand, is to help the government win the war.

I don't think there is any realistic chance to end the war with a peace process. I think they will fight until one group ultimately prevails. The rebels do not have a single leader and the majority are not being represented in the peace talks. Western powers are not going to negotiate with groups like ISIS, al-Nusra and the Islamic front and these are the groups that actually have power in Syria. Western powers would like for the government to be a democracy but this is unacceptable to the majority of the rebels so they would continue to fight.

 

[LoveBeingAMuslimah]

More Western countries/politicians weigh in:

Laurent Fabius, the French Foreign Minister, said France condemned “the Syrian regime’s brutal offensive with support from Russia to surround and suffocate Aleppo”.

“France fully supports the [UN] special envoy’s decision to suspend negotiations to which neither Bashar al-Assad’s regime nor his allies clearly want to contribute in good faith, thus torpedoing peace efforts,” he added.

US State Department spokesman John Kirby said Russian air strikes targeted opponents of President Assad, rather than Islamic State militants. “It is difficult to see how strikes against civilian targets contribute in any way to the peace process now being explored,” Mr Kirby said.

Syria civil war: President Assad’s forces cut off last rebel supply line to Aleppo raising fears of huge humanitarian crisis

"This regime that ruined the Geneva negotiations in 2014 is doing it again during this political process," Hijab added. "We came to Geneva to prove to the world that this regime does not believe in a political solution."

Mission accomplished (sad that it still needs to be proven though):

"The continued assault by Syrian regime forces -- enabled by Russian airstrikes -- against opposition-held areas, as well as regime and allied militias' continued besiegement of hundreds of thousands of civilians, have clearly signaled the intention to seek a military solution rather than enable a political one," Kerry said in a statement.

Kerry warns about Syria's continued airstrikes

 

[football5680]

"This regime that ruined the Geneva negotiations in 2014 is doing it again during this political process," Hijab added. "We came to Geneva to prove to the world that this regime does not believe in a political solution."

Mission accomplished (sad that it still needs to be proven though):

"The continued assault by Syrian regime forces -- enabled by Russian airstrikes -- against opposition-held areas, as well as regime and allied militias' continued besiegement of hundreds of thousands of civilians, have clearly signaled the intention to seek a military solution rather than enable a political one," Kerry said in a statement.

Kerry warns about Syria's continued airstrikes

The regime does not believe in a political solution because they are at the table alone. The majority of the rebels are not being represented in the talks so any deal that was made would be meaningless. These terrorist groups have already said they will not accept any deal that is made.

The Islamic Front said, "Syria’s future would be formulated here on the ground of heroism, and signed with blood on the front lines, not in hollow conferences attended by those who don’t even represent themselves,"

Ahrar al-Sham said, "We see Geneva as a tool of manipulation; to derail the Syrian revolution away from its goals and objectives. Whatever outcome the conference may yield, will be binding on the Syrian National Coalition only. For us, we will continue to fight for our revolution until we restore our rights."

ISIS and al-Nusra said pretty much the same thing as well. When you add all the men together that belong to these groups, they make up over 80% of the opposition. So at most, 20% of the fighters would abide by the peace deal while 80% will outright reject it.

 

[Douger]

...That or Syria should be split into two. One side Assad, one side not. Which is why the West needs to get involved, and not just allow Russia to continue this bombing campaign. America, and other Western nations need better, smarter leadership.

So you want to legitamize ISIS and give them a recognized state? Is that what "smarter leadership" would do?

 

[football5680]

So you want to legitamize ISIS and give them a recognized state? Is that what "smarter leadership" would do?

The person you are responding to didn't say anything about ISIS and splitting Syria would not mean ISIS is a recognized state, there would still be fighting. I don't agree with this plan but you are jumping to a conclusion without accurately representing their actual statement.

 

[Douger]

The person you are responding to didn't say anything about ISIS and splitting Syria would not mean ISIS is a recognized state, there would still be fighting. I don't agree with this plan but you are jumping to a conclusion without accurately representing their actual statement.

Very well, then what is this unindentified entity that controls half the country? Syria would be split between Assad (representing a secular multi confessional state) and whom? I could have jumped to the conclusion that Landon Caeli meant al-Nusra Front, would that be a more fair and correct assumption?
He's clearly referring to some faction that 1. the government is currently fighting in Aleppo, and 2. controls enough territory to create a viable state.

 

[football5680]

Very well, then what is this unindentified entity that controls half the country? Syria would be split between Assad (representing a secular multi confessional state) and whom? I could have jumped to the conclusion that Landon Caeli meant al-Nusra Front, would that be a more fair and correct assumption?
He's clearly referring to some faction that 1. the government is currently fighting in Aleppo, and 2. controls enough territory to create a viable state.

The North West portion of Syria would be given to Assad and the rest would pretty much be up for grabs which is the reason why I said, "there will still be fighting." The poster said one part would be Assad, and the other side wouldn't be. The side that wouldn't be under Assad is not a single entity, it is made up of all the rebels groups which includes ISIS, al-Nusra, the Islamic Front, etc.

I do not agree with this plan and I think it would be impossible to accomplish. Western powers are not going to sit down with groups like ISIS or al-Nusra and make a deal. We would sit down with the Secular pro-democracy "leaders" who have absolutely no power or influence in Syria. The complexity of this Civil War is going to make a diplomatic solution nearly impossible.

 

[Landon Caeli]

So you want to legitamize ISIS and give them a recognized state? Is that what "smarter leadership" would do?

LovebeingaMuslimah, had a valid point when she said that many of the refugees will not return to Syria under Assads rule. And Putin would be just fine with this, because Sunni's are not migrating to Russia, they're migrating to central Europe, which works perfectly for Putin... What a load off his shoulders!

...So, wouldn't it be better if the refugees had a homeland to return to, rather than being absorbed by the West?

...it's just a thought.

 

[Douger]

LovebeingaMuslimah, had a valid point when she said that many of the refugees will not return to Syria under Assads rule. And Putin would be just fine with this, because Sunni's are not migrating to Russia, they're migrating to central Europe, which works perfectly for Putin... What a load off his shoulders!

...So, wouldn't it be better if the refugees had a homeland to return to, rather than being absorbed by the West?

...it's just a thought.

That may sound like a valid point, but the history of the Syrian civil war seems to show otherwise. Syria was not experiencing a mass exodus under Assad before the civil war. During the civil war, a four year advance by rebel factions led to nearly half the country's population being displaced. Rebel held areas have been largely depopulated, but guess where the people are fleeing to? Government held areas. Latakia, Damascus, Western Aleppo, have all seen HUGE increases in population and when the government secures an area for example by negotiating a rebel withdrawal, people return to those areas.

 

[Landon Caeli]

That may sound like a valid point, but the history of the Syrian civil war seems to show otherwise. Syria was not experiencing a mass exodus under Assad before the civil war. During the civil war, a four year advance by rebel factions led to nearly half the country's population being displaced. Rebel held areas have been largely depopulated, but guess where the people are fleeing to? Government held areas. Latakia, Damascus, Western Aleppo, have all seen HUGE increases in population and when the government secures an area for example by negotiating a rebel withdrawal, people return to those areas.

What you're saying then is that Sunni rebels, who live in Syria, are fleeing to Shia controlled areas. I haven't heard that.

But even still, why should anyone think that those refugees who have actually fled the country, risking their lives in many cases, will ever return when considering that they could have already just gone to a government controlled area... I don't believe it.

 

[Douger]

What you're saying then is that Sunni rebels, who live in Syria, are fleeing to Shia controlled areas. I haven't heard that.

I haven't heard of that either, but Sunni civilians have certainly fled to government controlled areas, that's a fact.

But even still, why should anyone think that those refugees who have actually fled the country, risking their lives in many cases, will ever return when considering that they could have already just gone to a government controlled area... I don't believe it.

When a country is experiencing a civil war and the safe areas are getting smaller and smaller and more and more crowded, it makes perfect sense that a lot of people will want to simply leave the country. But bear in mind that a large majority of Syrian refugees have remained in Syria. And I bet that as more and more areas become secured and reconstruction begins we will see fewer and fewer people trying to leave the country and eventually those who have already left will start returning.