Reuters: McCain ahead in polls

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AdJesumPerMariam

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Why would anyone want a bunch of poles anyways?

I could see toys. "Whoever finishes with the most toys wins" - I've heard that before.

I used to have toys. Snowmobiles, dirt bikes, boats.... ohhhhh, those were the days.

Then I got married.

Now you have a wonderful wife :)
 
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Fantine

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ABC had a poll showing Obama ahead by 6 points. Another poll had Obama leading by 2 points.

But I think the Census will tell it all:

  • In 2004, turnout rates for citizens were 67 percent for non-Hispanic whites, 60 percent for blacks, 44 percent for Asians and 47 percent for Hispanics (of any race). These rates were higher than the previous presidential election by 5 percentage points for non-Hispanic whites and 3 points for blacks. By contrast, the voting rates for Asian and Hispanic citizens did not change. These data pertain to those who identified themselves as being of a single race. (See Table 1. [Excel])
  • Minnesota had the highest citizen-voting rate at 79 percent, and North Dakota the highest citizen-registration rate at 89 percent. (See Table 2. [Excel])
  • Citizens age 65 and older had the highest registration rate (79 percent) while those age 18 to 24 had the lowest (58 percent). The youngest group also had the lowest voting rate (47 percent), while those age 45 and older had the highest turnout (about 70 percent)

Only 60% of blacks voted in 2004 (well, there were a heckuva lot who couldn't in Ohio waiting on long lines while empty voting booths were locked in warehouses in the Republican suburbs, but we won't count them.)

Let's say enthusiasm over Obama brings that to 70%....

10% more voters in a group comprised of 14% of the population--that's 1.4% more for Obama.

Same for youth--only 47% voted in the last election....let's say enthusiasm for Obama brings that up to 60%....

Then there's the problem that all those states who tried to bring out the Republican vote last time by putting those gay marriage props on the ballot already have gay marriage props....what kind of props can they put on the ballot to bring out the conservative vote now?
 
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BAFRIEND

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ABC had a poll showing Obama ahead by 6 points. Another poll had Obama leading by 2 points.

But I think the Census will tell it all:



Only 60% of blacks voted in 2004 (well, there were a heckuva lot who couldn't in Ohio waiting on long lines while empty voting booths were locked in warehouses in the Republican suburbs, but we won't count them.)

Let's say enthusiasm over Obama brings that to 70%....

10% more voters in a group comprised of 14% of the population--that's 1.4% more for Obama.

Same for youth--only 47% voted in the last election....let's say enthusiasm for Obama brings that up to 60%....

Then there's the problem that all those states who tried to bring out the Republican vote last time by putting those gay marriage props on the ballot already have gay marriage props....what kind of props can they put on the ballot to bring out the conservative vote now?

Same argument as last election.

The prop. was abortion and the religous right handed the election to Bush although with all the same arguments it was claimed Kerry could not lose.
 
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