Netanyahu scores decisive win ... 30 seats to 24

NightHawkeye

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cow451

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Bibi's campaign swing through Washington paid off. Now he will have to bring in two of the opposition parties to have a ruling coalition. He must do so within 42 days:

Breakdown of results
 
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NightHawkeye

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Bibi's campaign swing through Washington paid off. Now he will have to bring in two of the opposition parties to have a ruling coalition. He must do so within 42 days:
Life's complicated sometimes.
According to your link, the polls were massively wrong ...
In the end, Likud overperformed opinion polls by 8 seats (equivalent to nearly 7% of the popular vote), but the “Likud-plus” coalition only overperformed by 3 seats, equivalent to only 2.5% of the popular vote. Since the average error in 2013 was 1.5 seats, we would have expected an error in the vicinity of 1.5*sqrt(5)=3.4 seats. So the error was about 1 standard deviation…not a massive shock, at least at the level of the whole coalition.​
 
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Billnew

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Life's complicated sometimes.

According to your link, the polls were massively wrong ...

In the end, Likud overperformed opinion polls by 8 seats (equivalent to nearly 7% of the popular vote), but the “Likud-plus” coalition only overperformed by 3 seats, equivalent to only 2.5% of the popular vote. Since the average error in 2013 was 1.5 seats, we would have expected an error in the vicinity of 1.5*sqrt(5)=3.4 seats. So the error was about 1 standard deviation…not a massive shock, at least at the level of the whole coalition.

Lesson here,
Never listen to polling data when deciding to or not to vote.

Also people will again listen to polls next time, even though they proved to be so wrong this time.
 
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cow451

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Life's complicated sometimes.

According to your link, the polls were massively wrong ...

In the end, Likud overperformed opinion polls by 8 seats (equivalent to nearly 7% of the popular vote), but the “Likud-plus” coalition only overperformed by 3 seats, equivalent to only 2.5% of the popular vote. Since the average error in 2013 was 1.5 seats, we would have expected an error in the vicinity of 1.5*sqrt(5)=3.4 seats. So the error was about 1 standard deviation…not a massive shock, at least at the level of the whole coalition.

I wasn't debating the polling.
 
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Followers4christ

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God bless Israel and the prime minister. It's great that Israel has a strong leader that will unify their land and not give away any part of Israel.

Benjamin Netanyahu declared there would be no Palestinian state if he prevails in today’s closely-fought Israeli election...

Asked by his interviewer whether that meant, “If you are prime minister than there won’t be a Palestinian state?’’ Mr Netanyahu replied simply: “Indeed.’’
 
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