shinbits said:
Wasn't the child born to an aristocrat lucky?
Sure, birth is always a matter of luck. But you are still thinking individualistically not statistically. "Random" is a statistical concept.
The correct question is not: is this child lucky to be born to an aristocrat. It is, why are children (note the plural) of aristocrats more likely than beggars' children to avoid or survive the Plague?
If it were a matter of luck the ratio of infections to population and deaths to infections would be the same for both groups. It's not, so it is not random.
Those who are able to afford a good diet and good housing most likely worked for it; that wouldn't be luck. But for children born to them it would be; or a woman chosen to be a bride to a succesful man because of beauty, is lucky to be born that way, or lucky to be in circumstances where she could eat properly, stay healthy, and maintain her beauty.
You don't know whether or not it is luck until you look at it statistically. It is not what happens to a child or a woman or a man that determines whether survival is random, but what the pattern of survival is in a whole group of men, women or children as compared to another group of men, women or children. If one group has a better survival rate than another, and this can be attributed to something they have in common that the other group does not share--such as a different diet--then it is not a matter of random luck, it is something related to their diet.
For example, you say a woman is lucky to be born beautiful because she is more likely to attract the attention of a successful man. But that tells you there is a statistical relationship between beauty and marriage to successful men. Successful men do not choose their brides at random; they choose them according to certain criteria, one of which is beauty. If the choice of marriage partner was strictly random, it wouldn't matter whether or not she was beautiful. Then it would really be luck if she attracted a successful man. But as his choice is not random, this is not an example of luck, it is an example of selection.
So evolution is fueled on luck?
Not quite. Only some mutations get the chance to be fuel. Every tank of gasoline at the filling station can be fuel for your car, but you choose whether you will put regular or premium in the tank, and after you have filled the tank, you choose where the car will go.
Similarly, while all mutations could fuel evolution, which mutations are actually used as fuel and where they will take the evolving species are a matter of non-random selection. It is selection, not mutations, which drive evolution.