Isn't this like asking:
You have two metropolitan communities ... say ... 3000 miles apart.
Within those two communities, you have a house with the same address: 1870 Williamsburg Court.
What are the chances of two families named Laxtonhite moving into both dwellings?
I would say pretty slim.
But if they were name Smith instead, the chances dramatically increase.
If you have a quintillion viruses hovering over two same locations on two different genomes, then the chances of getting two locations the same are phenomenal.
Again, it would be like a cargo plane flying over two golf courses and releasing 30,000 golf balls; then claiming both courses are related because they found a golf ball in the 7th hole of both courses.
Wouldn't it?
I think I have described this analogy to you before, but I could be mistaken.
The situations is much more like this. Let's say that we have two unabridged Oxford English Dicitionaries. Each has the same 30,000 entries. They are completely identical. We give these two dictionaries to two different people and put them in separate rooms. We ask them each to randomly pick 2 entries out of the entire dictionary. We compare their random picks. What are the chances that they both picked the same 2 words? Pretty low, right?
2 entries out of 30,000 is the same situation we have with the human genome. The haploid human genome is 3 billion bases and it contains 200,000 insertions, the same ratio as 30,000 to 2. Your math just doesn't hold up.
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