And Now There Are 6 Republican Candidates; How Many On March 1?

[mark46]

Iowa and NH voters have done their job in winnowing the field to 6 candidates, from the original 17 or so.

Who, if any, will drop out before the SEC primary on March 1? Of course, the longer that we have lots of candidates, the more likely that Trump's 35% or so will get him the nomination.

There are two contests before March 1st: South Carolina and Nevada. Perhaps someone will drop out after these.

 

[Smidlee]

Don't forget about Jim Gilmore and Vermin Supreme (who got more votes than Jim Gilmore).

 

[mark46]

Don't forget about Jim Gilmore and Vermin Supreme (who got more votes than Jim Gilmore).

Gilmore is out.

outsiders: Trump, Cruz, Carson
insiders: Bush, Kasich, Rubio

In SC, all but a couple of delegates will go to the winner. With 6 candidates, Trump's continuing 35% looks strong.

 

[Smidlee]

Gilmore is out.

outsiders: Trump, Cruz, Carson
insiders: Bush, Kasich, Rubio

In SC, all but a couple of delegates will go to the winner. With 6 candidates, Trump's continuing 35% looks strong.

OK. I missed that as He seem to suggest the day before he would be heading to South Carolina. The man was beaten by a man with a boot on his head. lol

 

[Willtor]

OK. I missed that as He seem to suggest the day before he would be heading to South Carolina. The man was beaten by a man with a boot on his head. lol

Transcribed from an Iowa Caucus:

A: I'm voicing my support for Vermin Supreme!

B: He's a joke candidate. Why don't you vote for Jim Gilmore or something?

A: Jim who?

 

[Vylo]

Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush have the money to go all the way to the convention. Carson can keep going well through march, and Kasich even has some cash on hand.

Basically, only if Kasich gets crushed will we see anyone drop out. The remaining establishment, unable to push Trump/Cruz out, may all stay in to force a brokered convention if none of them can claim the mantle for themselves.

 

[mark46]

Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush have the money to go all the way to the convention. Carson can keep going well through march, and Kasich even has some cash on hand.

Basically, only if Kasich gets crushed will we see anyone drop out. The remaining establishment, unable to push Trump/Cruz out, may all stay in to force a brokered convention if none of them can claim the mantle for themselves.

If the candidates aren't reduced soon, Trump will start winning all the delegates with his 35% polling.

 

[Albion]

Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush have the money to go all the way to the convention. Carson can keep going well through march, and Kasich even has some cash on hand.

Basically, only if Kasich gets crushed will we see anyone drop out. The remaining establishment, unable to push Trump/Cruz out, may all stay in to force a brokered convention if none of them can claim the mantle for themselves.

I'm inclined to see it this way, too. The one who probably SHOULD get out is Bush, but that would be too embarrassing for him at this stage of things and would be badly received by all those people who staked him to such a large warchest.

 

[Willtor]

I'm inclined to see it this way, too. The one who probably SHOULD get out is Bush, but that would be too embarrassing for him at this stage of things and would be badly received by all those people who staked him to such a large warchest.

Yeah, but if he's seen to undermine the party choice, this cycle, that will be used against him in 2020. If he's playing the long game, he still has another shot at the White House. If he's worried about embarrassment now, he could torpedo his future chances.

 

[Albion]

Yeah, but if he's seen to undermine the party choice, this cycle, that will be used against him in 2020.

There's no 2020 for Jeb Bush. It's now or never.

 

[Willtor]

There's no 2020 for Jeb Bush. It's now or never.

Haha!

Politics is like Star Trek. Nobody's ever _really_ gone.

 

[Albion]

Haha!

Politics is like Star Trek. Nobody's ever _really_ gone.

In theory, no. And there are, of course, exceptions. But in Jeb's case, it is very doubtful that he will figure in any future run for the presidency.

He could keep his name before the people by hosting a TV show, running for the Senate or the Governorship again, heading up some nationwide political action organization, and all of that, but do you really, really, think that he's inclined to do so? No, he is running now almost totally on the idea that he's a Bush.

He didn't do any of this stuff in anticipation of making the run in 2016, so the idea that he's going to do it with enthusiasm after losing this year's primaries doesn't seem to have much going for it.

 

[Willtor]

We'll see. He's still young (relatively-speaking). Perceptions often change overnight, and he's got 4 years to rehabilitate his image.

 

[bhsmte]

In theory, no. And there are, of course, exceptions. But in Jeb's case, it is very doubtful that he will figure in any future run for the presidency.

He could keep his name before the people by hosting a TV show, running for the Senate or the Governorship again, heading up some nationwide political action organization, and all of that, but do you really, really, think that he's inclined to do so? No, he is running now almost totally on the idea that he's a Bush.

He didn't do any of this stuff in anticipation of making the run in 2016, so the idea that he's going to do it with enthusiasm after losing this year's primaries doesn't seem to have much going for it.

If history has taught us anything, it is 4 years is an eternity in the political world and you never say never.

 

[Vylo]

Jeb still has 2 election cycles in him, so expect him in 2020. 2024 is unlikely. Clinton, assuming a loss with no democrat incumbent, will likely make one last swipe in 2020 if she isn't indicted or anything of that nature, but there will likely be new blood coming up the ranks. I'm predicting Cory Booker will make a move sometime soon, either 2020 or 2024, he may even be tapped for VP this year.

Rubio, like his speeches will be repeat again and again.

 

[NightHawkeye]

I'm inclined to see it this way, too. The one who probably SHOULD get out is Bush, but that would be too embarrassing for him at this stage of things and would be badly received by all those people who staked him to such a large warchest.

If team Bush keeps spending the way they did in New Hampshire they'll be out before the end of the month. If they don't keep spending the way they did in New Hampshire Bush won't get any votes. Either way, I just don't see it working out for team Bush.

Poor Jeb ...

 

[Albion]

If team Bush keeps spending the way they did in New Hampshire they'll be out before the end of the month. If they don't keep spending the way they did in New Hampshire Bush won't get any votes. Either way, I just don't see it working out for team Bush.

Poor Jeb ...

Sounds right, although Bush does seem to be more comfortable lately in the debates. But I still think the moment has passed him by, and the main thing that's keeping him somewhat competitive is that the Establishment doesn't know whom to switch to instead. Rubio has feet of clay, they still don't like Cruz, and Kasich is heading into unpromising territory for the next few primaries. The latest poll shows him getting 9% next Tuesday (?), so he's probably reached his high water mark already. I didn't think his strategy of saying "we shouldn't argue" while he's arguing with Trump and Bush himself won't make much of an impact on the voters.

 

[Douger]

Just thought this picture was hilarious. Trump has thrown down the gauntlet to the republican party and he's going to crush these clowns.

Trump to the GOP establishment