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  #21  
Unread 16th February 2014, 02:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Seipai View Post
And a post of Michael's a while back reminded me of this article:

Particle physicists discover strongest ever evidence of dark matter | ExtremeTech

The odds that they found dark matter is not sure, it is about "3 sigma" which is not quite the 3.5 sigma of the article that Michael linked, but it is very close. Don't count dark matter out yet.
LUX dark-matter search comes up empty - physicsworld.com

That's old and stale news dude. If those early result had not just been a statistical fluke, LUX "should have" seen around 1600 hits. They saw none. So sorry your hope in exotic matter theory got dashed yet again.
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  #22  
Unread 16th February 2014, 02:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Michael View Post
LUX dark-matter search comes up empty - physicsworld.com

That's old and stale news dude. If those early result had not just been a statistical fluke, LUX "should have" seen around 1600 hits. They saw none. So sorry your hope in exotic matter theory got dashed yet again.
Yes, I already dealt with this. Two separate experiments. One claims that they should have seen evidence that they were not set up for. Perhaps they would have, perhaps not.

Once again, you were going nuts over an experiment that was only 3.5 sigma, compared to this ones 3 sigma. They are fairly sure from the results in the Minnesota mine experiment, they are just not 5 sigma sure.
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  #23  
Unread 16th February 2014, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Seipai View Post
Yes, I already dealt with this. Two separate experiments. One claims that they should have seen evidence that they were not set up for. Perhaps they would have, perhaps not.

Once again, you were going nuts over an experiment that was only 3.5 sigma, compared to this ones 3 sigma. They are fairly sure from the results in the Minnesota mine experiment, they are just not 5 sigma sure.

That's funny, that's not what the scientists themselves think.

Another dark-matter sign from a Minnesota mine : Nature News Blog

"Two other possible detections from the CDMS search, reported in 2010, turned out to be indistinguishable from background collisions from other, non-WIMP, sources. The same may yet hold true for the latest findings...

We do not believe this result rises to the level of a discovery, but it does call for further investigation,” said Kevin McCarthy, a CDMS team member from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge"

In other words it is time to ask for more funding.

Why do you misrepresent the actual facts?

"
The CDMS tries to get around that by shielding its detectors as much as possible and by precisely calculating the rate of expected collisions from other, background sources. The three possible WIMP events popped out of data in which 0.7 similar events would be expected from background, McCarthy said. Two of them occurred in the same detector.


He reported the signal at a 99.81% confidence level, or around three sigma in statistical language. “We favor the WIMP plus background hypothesis,” he said."

Of course they favor that hypothesis, their careers rely on it and so does future funding. So there is also a 99.81% confidence level that they are merely background noise, and 10 to 1 odds that's what they are and you will never hear of this again or they will finally come out and admit to it.


But then we find out the real actual statistical results.

http://cdms.berkeley.edu/CDMSII_Si_DM_Results.pdf

" We performed a profile likelihood analysis in which the background rates were treated as nuisance parameters and the WIMP mass and cross section were the parameters of interest. The highest likelihood is found for a WIMP mass of 8.6 GeV/c^2 and a WIMP-nucleon cross section of 1.9 10^41cm^2. The goodness-of-t test of this WIMP+background hypothesis results in a p-value of 68%, while the background-only hypothesis fits the data with a p-value of 4.5%. A profile likelihood ratio test including the event energies finds that the data favor the WIMP+background hypothesis over our background-only hypothesis with a p-value of 0.19%. Though this result favors a WIMP interpretation over the known-background-only hypothesis, we do not believe this result rises to the level of a discovery."

So the WIMP theory comes out .19% more favorable than just background, which is why they clearly state "we do not believe this result rises to the level of a discovery."

So you still have no discoveries of dark matter after 25 years of searching. And in 25 more years you will still have none. Fairie Dust can never be detected, because it is Fairie Dust.
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Last edited by Justatruthseeker; 16th February 2014 at 10:55 AM.
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  #24  
Unread 16th February 2014, 11:01 AM
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What is sad is that in science today a .19% probability over just background rises to the level of a press release and you can be sure a plea for more funding, since further investigations are clearly needed. I'd say a less than 1% probability calls for a declaration of a null result. But then they might not get that funding, so a <1% probability turns into a 99.81% confidence level. Man-o-man, the state of science today.

Correction: the state of astronomical so-called science.
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  #25  
Unread 16th February 2014, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Justatruthseeker View Post
That's funny, that's not what the scientists themselves think.

Another dark-matter sign from a Minnesota mine : Nature News Blog

"Two other possible detections from the CDMS search, reported in 2010, turned out to be indistinguishable from background collisions from other, non-WIMP, sources. The same may yet hold true for the latest findings...

We do not believe this result rises to the level of a discovery, but it does call for further investigation,” said Kevin McCarthy, a CDMS team member from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge"

In other words it is time to ask for more funding.

Why do you misrepresent the actual facts?
Once again you could not understand a simple article:

He reported the signal at a 99.81% confidence level, or around three sigma in statistical language. “We favor the WIMP plus background hypothesis,” he said.
They are "99.81%" sure. That seems to support my statement not yours. You misinterpreted what they said. They were being honest. There is enough doubt to say that this is not an official discovery. And I never claimed it was an official discovery. So how in any way did I misrepresent the article? If anyone did that would be you.



He reported the signal at a 99.81% confidence level, or around three sigma in statistical language. “We favor the WIMP plus background hypothesis,” he said."
Hey look! You just quoted the same line that I did.

Of course they favor that hypothesis, their careers rely on it and so does future funding. So there is also a 99.81% confidence level that they are merely background noise, and 10 to 1 odds that's what they are and you will never hear of this again or they will finally come out and admit to it.
No, you clearly do not understand the figures.


But then we find out the real actual statistical results.

http://cdms.berkeley.edu/CDMSII_Si_DM_Results.pdf

" We performed a profile likelihood analysis in which the background rates were treated as nuisance parameters and the WIMP mass and cross section were the parameters of interest. The highest likelihood is found for a WIMP mass of 8.6 GeV/c^2 and a WIMP-nucleon cross section of 1.9 10^41cm^2. The goodness-of-t test of this WIMP+background hypothesis results in a p-value of 68%, while the background-only hypothesis ts the data with a p-value of 4.5%. A profile likelihood ratio test including the event energies finds that the data favor the WIMP+background hypothesis over our background-only hypothesis with a p-value of 0.19%. Though this result favors a WIMP interpretation over the known-background-only hypothesis, we do not believe this result rises to the level of a discovery."

So the WIMP theory comes out .19% more favorable than just background, which is why they clearly state "we do not believe this result rises to the level of a discovery."

So you still have no discoveries of dark matter after 25 years of searching. And in 25 more years you will still have none. Fairie Dust can never be detected, because it is Fairie Dust.
No, just no. In fact I will add a for you. That is not what it says at all. The percentage of 0.19% is the probability of background alone. The 68% figure is a WIMP's only event. The most likely event, at over 99%, is a WIMP's plus background.
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  #26  
Unread 16th February 2014, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Seipai View Post
No, you clearly do not understand the figures.
Irony overload.

It is you that seems to fail to recognize the significance of the LUX results, and how they ultimately *falsified* the earlier "hints" of dark matter at those energy states. Had the *original* (the one's you keep prattling on about) been "real", not just a statistical anomaly, LUX "should have" seen around 1600 such events due to the *more sensitive* nature of the LUX equipment. They saw exactly *none*! LUX is *more* sensitive than the equipment used earlier in the year. Had the original results that you cited been real, LUX would have been able to verify that claim about 1600 times. Instead LUX saw exactly no such events, meaning the *earlier* claims were a "false positive" to begin with. There was never any validity to the earlier tests, they were simply a statistical anomaly related to the way neutrons can interact with in less sensitive earlier test.

Your so called "evidence of dark matter" was later falsified in *better* LUX tests. Get over it already.
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  #27  
Unread 16th February 2014, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Michael View Post
Irony overload.

It is you that seems to fail to recognize the significance of the LUX results, and how they ultimately *falsified* the earlier "hints" of dark matter at those energy states. Had the *original* (the one's you keep prattling on about) been "real", not just a statistical anomaly, LUX "should have" seen around 1600 such events due to the *more sensitive* nature of the LUX equipment. They saw exactly *none*! LUX is *more* sensitive than the equipment used earlier in the year. Had the original results that you cited been real, LUX would have been able to verify that claim about 1600 times. Instead LUX saw exactly no such events, meaning the *earlier* claims were a "false positive" to begin with. There was never any validity to the earlier tests, they were simply a statistical anomaly related to the way neutrons can interact with in less sensitive earlier test.

Your so called "evidence of dark matter" was later falsified in *better* LUX tests. Get over it already.
No, possibly better. The LUX may be better. I have not seen too much that supports their claim. Again, even if this is a false positive there is still far more supporting evidence for the standard model than there is for your debunked electric universe. Talk about pegging the irony meter.

The fact is that Justatruthseeker shot himself in the foot again by misinterpreting an article that he did not understand. Doesn't it worry you a bit that the only people who support you are creationists like Justatruthseeker?
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  #28  
Unread 16th February 2014, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Seipai View Post
No, possibly better. The LUX may be better. I have not seen too much that supports their claim.
That just demonstrates yet again that you have selective reading skills, and you pretty much *ignore* the information that you don't wish to deal with. From the article I just cited for you:

Earlier this year, the US-based CDMS dark-matter experiment – located deep underground in the Soudan Mine in northern Minnesota – reported the detection of three WIMPs with masses of about 8.6 GeV/c2. While this mass is much lower than most conventional theories predict, it seems to agree with somewhat weaker observations in several other experiments. The CDMS detection has a statistical significance of about 3σ: well below the gold standard of 5σ, which is considered a discovery in particle physics. As a result some physicists doubt the CDMS result, while others have tried to explain it by developing new theories of WIMPs. Expected 1600 events

However, the CDMS WIMPs should have produced more than 1600 events in LUX. No such signals were seen, making it much less likely that low-mass WIMPs exist.
"Those 'hints' – which were at best controversial – motivated several theories to explain them, which in turn can lend undue credence to those results," says Henrique Ara˙jo who leads the LUX team at Imperial College London. "But LUX is by far the most sensitive instrument in this hunt, and our very clean data contradict that interpretation emphatically:.....
Emphasis mine. Had your original claims been valid to begin with, the LUX equipment would have registered around 1600 "verified positives". Instead it registered exactly none, meaning those three prior 'hits' were likely to simply be "false positives", and nothing more than a statical anomaly based on a very limited data set, and more primitive equipment!

Again, even if this is a false positive
It was!

there is still far more supporting evidence for the standard model than there is for your debunked electric universe.
Like? So far, something like 95 percent of your claims fail to show up in the lab, even more than that if we add inflation claims, "space expansion' claims to your list of non demonstrated supernatural claim list.

Talk about pegging the irony meter.
I'm afraid you broke the meter when you claimed there was no peer reviewed evidence to support EU/PC theory, and only had unpublished website links that had *absolutely nothing* to do with any of Alfven's published work in rebuttal.

Apparently you don't even want to deal with those LUX results at all. Who are you to be talking about how anyone interpreted or misinterpreted any data?

LUX crushed your claims outright. Get over it already.
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  #29  
Unread 16th February 2014, 02:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Michael View Post
That just demonstrates yet again that you have selective reading skills, and you pretty much *ignore* the information that you don't wish to deal with. From the article I just cited for you:

Emphasis mine. Had your original claims been valid to begin with, the LUX equipment would have registered around 1600 "verified positives". Instead it registered exactly none, meaning those three prior 'hits' were likely to simply be "false positives", and nothing more than a statical anomaly based on a very limited data set, and more primitive equipment!


It was!

Like? So far, something like 95 percent of your claims fail to show up in the lab, even more than that if we add inflation claims, "space expansion' claims to your list of non demonstrated supernatural claim list.

I'm afraid you broke the meter when you claimed there was no peer reviewed evidence to support EU/PC theory, and only had unpublished website links that had *absolutely nothing* to do with any of Alfven's published work in rebuttal.

Apparently you don't even want to deal with those LUX results at all. Who are you to be talking about how anyone interpreted or misinterpreted any data?

LUX crushed your claims outright. Get over it already.
Spoken like the true blind follower of your religion. You keep forgetting the failures of EU which both outnumber and are of greater scope than any failures of the standard model.

When you honestly present evidence and what you actually believe we can debate it. So far the best you have been able to try to claim is the "Alfven did not predict that".
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Unread 16th February 2014, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Seipai View Post
Spoken like the true blind follower of your religion.
Excuse me? You're the one that is forced to *outright ignore* the more sensitive LUX results, not me. You're the one "blindly following" a claim that entirely lacks any sort of empirical support of any of it's key claims *in spite* of the evidence from the lab!

You keep forgetting the failures of EU which both outnumber and are of greater scope than any failures of the standard model.
What a joke. Birkeland personally made more "valid predictions" about events in space 100 years ago using his cathode solar models than anything the mainstream has done since! Holy cow! It took the backwards mainstream nearly 60 years to verify his predictions about aurora. At the rate they are going, it will likely take the mainstream another 60 years to figure out that the sun is *electrical* in nature too!

When you honestly present evidence and what you actually believe we can debate it. So far the best you have been able to try to claim is the "Alfven did not predict that".
That's because it's true, and you don't have a single published rebuttal to any of his work and we both know it too. You're up a dark invisible creek without a single empirical or peer reviewed paddle to your name.
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