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  #1  
Unread 26th October 2012, 06:55 PM
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Early voting is affecting the polls

There's a new factor that's skewing the polls - early voting. People who say they have already voted are counted in 'likely voter" polls. That would seem to make sense, but there is a human dynamic whereby some people answer polls according to what they think others want to hear. Some people say they are likely do vote but do not, and now some people say they already have but have not.

Now couple that dynamic with the Dems' big push for early voting (while the GOP continues to stress traditional election day voting). You can see that a new misleading dynamic has been introduced. Some Dems are going to say they already have voted, because they think that's what's expected of them, but they haven't, and maybe will not.

This is particularly true in Ohio, a state which has a lot of people scratching their heads. Romney's metrics are increasing, and dramatically so among independents, and yet Obama maintains his lead in the polls. Some have said that Ohio is defying gravity.

But if the above dynamic is the cause, and if there really is an enthusiasm gap that favors Romney, then the artificial voted early numbers are going to fade to gray on election day.

The problem is that this dynamic is so new that no one, at least among public pollsters, knows how to deal with it yet. They have to find questions that qualify the answers of those who claim to have already voted.

For more on this, see Josh Jordan's very insightful NRO article.
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  #2  
Unread 26th October 2012, 09:59 PM
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I don't think the GOP is really stressing traditional day voting, at least not according to this memo:

GOP memo on early voting | Jamie Dupree Washington Insider
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  #3  
Unread 26th October 2012, 10:30 PM
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I've decided to vote. And I've decided to vote early. If some poll taker asks me, I'm going to say I voted for the main candidate that I don't want to win... that way when others who haven't voted yet hear that their guy is behind, they'll go out and vote rather than think it's a shoe in.
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Unread 26th October 2012, 10:49 PM
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People don't tell the truth to pollsters? Shocking.
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  #5  
Unread 26th October 2012, 11:31 PM
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Never fear.

Republicans appear to be winning early vote - San Antonio Express-News
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  #6  
Unread 27th October 2012, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Jeffwhosoever View Post

...in Texas.

Breaking news: Republicans are now leading in Texas.

Yawn.
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