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  #551  
Unread 5th June 2013, 07:19 PM
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Originally Posted by BlueLioness View Post
Right. So you can't say it is warm all of the time (I mean if the temperature fluctuates, its not). Sheesh.
Global warming means the GLOBAL AVERAGE temperature will increase. It doesn't mean that it will never be cold. As TLK points out there are places where the climate will change in unknown ways.

For instance, there is evidence that if the Greenland icecap melts the fresh water that goes into the North Atlanticcould cause serious problems with the THERMOHALINE CURRENT that moves warm water up in the Atlantic. The Gulf Stream is part of this and it is why western Europe enjoys warmer weather than would be expected for its latitude. The Gulf Stream pumps huge amounts of energy into that part of the world.

The THC hS shut down in the past.

It would possibly mean a much cold Europe while the global average temperature increases.

If the average age of a towns population is increasing it doesn't necessarily mean no new births occur. Just that the AVERAGE age is increasing. Fewer births are occuring or people are living longer.
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  #552  
Unread 6th June 2013, 12:17 AM
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Originally Posted by eclipsenow View Post
Just making a lot of assertion is not an argument, otherwise I could just save a lot of time by writing....
If you want proof will you read 400MB of code written in FORTRAN? Though I doubt I'll be able to attach 400MB to a post.

Originally Posted by eclipsenow View Post
Do you want to try and find some DATA to prove your truly paranoid assertions about hind-casting? I've not read so much paranoid foaming at the mouth since I last visited a 'Moon landing was faked' tabloid.
I do have all the data I need. The code of a model. Big fat ugly code. Being written in FORTRAN. Yes, I know they had a reason to do it this way. When they started writing it the only language that had reliable math package was FORTRAN. At least they don't have to prove there are no bugs in the libraries they use. After 40+ years that is unlikely.

Originally Posted by eclipsenow View Post
Oh yeah, and what do you do about the FACT that Co2 traps heat?
Wear T-shirt more often.
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  #553  
Unread 6th June 2013, 12:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Lucy Stulz View Post
No, a Hindcast runs the data from starting conditions and is compared to the observations.
You meant "known staring conditions". And "the observations" are know data from the past. Just by using different terminology the problem will not disappear.

Originally Posted by Lucy Stulz View Post
The idea of a hindcast model is to check to see how accurately the MODEL re-creates REALITY.
Now that is not true. Even you admit that models left running forever will oscillate around long-term mean. That does not happen in REALITY. In reality we have global warming.

As I already said they create a model that will behave the way you described, and then add CO2 forcing and fine tune it to match observed data. The forcing is known. What they fine tune is the feedback loop with other modules of the model like evaporation of water and CLOUD FORMATION.

Originally Posted by Lucy Stulz View Post
So you decided not to take to heart what actual climate scientists tell you about the models then?
If actual climate scientists do write the code themselves then the problem with bugs is even grater. The estimates I gave is when a professional software developer is creating the code.

Originally Posted by Lucy Stulz View Post
If a hindcast shows a model has failed there has to be a reason. HOW ELSE WOULD YOU TEST A MODEL???????
By starting small scale. First they have to start doing reasonable 5-day weather forecasts, then they will know the physics behind their calculations is true.

Originally Posted by Lucy Stulz View Post
Wow. Just wow. Guess a scientist in your world gets exactly one shot to get it right!
No, they first prove they know physics behind the processes actually happening, by doing reliable 5-days, then 10-days, etc. forecasts.
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  #554  
Unread 6th June 2013, 03:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Upisoft View Post
If you want proof will you read 400MB of code written in FORTRAN? ....After 40+ years that is unlikely.
Sorry, but their models are actually quite good and have high predictive quality, not just hindcasting.

This Year’s Model | Climate Denial Crock of the Week

Wear T-shirt more often.
You may not be able to if, say, your town doesn't receive any more rainwater and goes bankrupt, or the farm that grew the cotton for your T-Shirt dries up and blows away, or your country is invaded or nuked as a final water-war really gets going. Global warming isn't about your part of the world being a degree or two warmer, it's about how catastrophically local weather conditions can change as global energy levels rev up. In other words, climate trains the 'boxer', but weather throws the 'punches'. Some of those punches are going to be KO's! As the Stern report calculated, it will take 20 times much money to adapt to a climate catastrophe as it would take to prevent it. 20 times!
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Global Warming is now so serious I am convinced that we will have to use SPICE** to save civilisation. Our grandchildren may be forced to paint the skies white! Blue skies may not be permitted for many centuries to come! Clean energy has been too little too late. We have failed. Our grandchildren will curse us for ignorant fools.

** (Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering)
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  #555  
Unread 6th June 2013, 05:52 AM
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Yes, the climate science has reported a rise in temperatures and that 12 of the last 15 years have been the hottest on record. But yes, also, that rise has not been quite as rapid as they thought it would be. The climate scientists are aware of this, and analysing where the delays may be in the system. But the fact that Co2 traps heat remains, that it traps it in certain ways and certain strengths. Where that extra heat goes is still being analysed, and it may be that Earth's deeper oceans are storing more and more heat. That's going to have consequences. It's going to come back out again!

And it's not like the climate community has suddenly packed up and gone home. It's not like a single one of them has said IT"S OVER! They're giving us some long-needed HOPE that we might actually have a chance to keep it under 2 degrees of warming! But will we do it in the face of recalcitrant, stubborn old-time market fundamentalists who can't agree to government intervention on our energy systems, even when we really should get started on weaning off fossil fuels before they peak? Can we get past all this denialism and learn to look at the facts?

From New Scientist:

"Even if it is technically possible to limit warming to 2 °C, that does not mean it will actually happen. "I suppose it means that 2 °C isn't quite as unattainable as it was previously thought to be, but I'm not exactly holding my breath on climate negotiations," says Annan."
A second chance to save the climate - 19 May 2013 - New Scientist
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Global Warming is now so serious I am convinced that we will have to use SPICE** to save civilisation. Our grandchildren may be forced to paint the skies white! Blue skies may not be permitted for many centuries to come! Clean energy has been too little too late. We have failed. Our grandchildren will curse us for ignorant fools.

** (Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering)

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  #556  
Unread 6th June 2013, 06:39 AM
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An example of rapidly melting sea ice:

Preparing for record season on the Northern Sea Route

Hardly anything illustrates the situation in today's Arctic better than the dynamics of trans shipments along the Northern Sea Route. Melting ice opens up new waters for longer periods than ever before and at unprecedented speed.

There has been a tenfold increase in the number of vessels using the NSR during the last couple of years. In 2012 46 vessels sailed the whole route, compared to 34 in 2011 and only four in 2010. Five years ago, the number was zero. In 2009, two ships, the "Beluga Fraternity" and "Beluga Foresight", made the trans-continental journey.
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I am resolving now never to hold rancor, however justified it might be, toward a group of people, whatever their race, religion, conviction, prejudices, errors. -- Irène Némirovsky

Cannons and fire-arms are cruel and damnable machines; I believe them to have been the direct suggestion of the Devil. If Adam had seen in a vision the horrible instruments his children were to invent, he would have died of grief. -- Martin Luther
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  #557  
Unread 7th June 2013, 04:34 PM
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  #558  
Unread 8th June 2013, 05:50 AM
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Originally Posted by eclipsenow View Post
Sorry, but their models are actually quite good and have high predictive quality, not just hindcasting.

This Year’s Model | Climate Denial Crock of the Week
They actually do not have high predictive quality. Otherwise they would not update the model each year.

Originally Posted by eclipsenow View Post
You may not be able to if, say, your town doesn't receive any more rainwater and goes bankrupt, or the farm that grew the cotton for your T-Shirt dries up and blows away,
This is already happening entirely based on different reasons. West came bought almost every business and exporting most of the goods out of the country.

Originally Posted by eclipsenow View Post
or your country is invaded or nuked as a final water-war really gets going.
Nukes in water-war? Was that a joke? Who wants to drink radiated water?

Originally Posted by eclipsenow View Post
Global warming isn't about your part of the world being a degree or two warmer, it's about how catastrophically local weather conditions can change as global energy levels rev up. In other words, climate trains the 'boxer', but weather throws the 'punches'. Some of those punches are going to be KO's! As the Stern report calculated, it will take 20 times much money to adapt to a climate catastrophe as it would take to prevent it. 20 times!
Ah, yes. They apparently have huge experience dealing with global warming events. so they know which is cheaper. Did they consider that human caused or not, global warming will eventually happen. What then? All the money spent on preventing it will be wasted.
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Unread 8th June 2013, 07:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Upisoft View Post
They actually do not have high predictive quality. Otherwise they would not update the model each year.
You just flat out refused to watch that video, didn't ya? I'll take your posts more seriously when you can be bothered to actually engage the material I post.

You need to acknowledge that we know Co2 traps heat! We know it from physics, from the lab, and last but not least, from the models actually having predictive power. But mostly from the lab! We know this. It's like watching water boil again and again, and measuring what happens and by how much. Any good physics lab can explain it to you.

Co2 traps heat. See it here at 90 seconds in.
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Global Warming is now so serious I am convinced that we will have to use SPICE** to save civilisation. Our grandchildren may be forced to paint the skies white! Blue skies may not be permitted for many centuries to come! Clean energy has been too little too late. We have failed. Our grandchildren will curse us for ignorant fools.

** (Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering)
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Unread 8th June 2013, 09:25 AM
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Originally Posted by eclipsenow View Post
You need to acknowledge that we know Co2 traps heat!
How many times do you need to ask me to do what I already did? In fact I never said CO2 does not trap heat and I already said that global warming happens.

So, why do you ask me to do something I already did? I already told you once that our debate is not if global warming happens. It is about the question in the title of this thread. Please do not continue to sidetrack the debate. This is last time I'm answering to an attempt to sidetrack it.
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