More double-speak. What is a 'jobless recovery?'

Are you as fed-up as I am with the insanity that passes for expert commentary in the media about the depression? We are now being told that we are in for a 'jobless recovery'. What the #!*%& is that? A recovery for who?

Bernanke to lawmaker: Jobless recovery may loom | Politics | Reuters


The American people are being played for foos by the criminals who have caused the greatest economic collapse in history. Now we have a jobless recovery. Is that a bit like 'water-less oceans' or 'food-less meals'?

A sensible response: The Recovery That Isn't by Peter Schiff

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Mat 16:6

Things will settle down and many people will find they are out of a job. After awhile what is will seem normal.

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What Does Jobless Recovery Mean?
An economic recovery, following a recession, where the economy as a whole improves, but the unemployment rate remains high or continues to increase over a prolonged period of time. This effect may be a result of cautious businesses that add hours to existing employees in order to increase production capacity rather than hiring new workers.

Jobless Recovery <-- investopedia.com link


Yes that means that businesses are currently doing better than people. It's not ideal, but it's what we've got right now. And it's better than economic depression (where both are getting worse).

Eventually the businesses will be doing much better and will need more help - so they'll hire more people, and then unemployment goes down.

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"It is more blessed to give than to recieve"-Acts 20:35

He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose! -Jim Elliot

It's all about Jesus!!!!
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With stocks trading at P/E's of 50 plus (rather than around 12 in a truly functioning economy) the bubble economy has still not yet burst. Funny Fed money being rammed into a fast deleveraging economy has only barely prevented a major and swift collapse that MUST happen to clear out all of the unpayable debt. But instead the government is racking up huge interest bills that will never be paid, just to keep the economy treading water. And what happens when the money printing gets so silly that even CBNC has to admit that it's all fake? Get out of the way, the slide will stop for nobody!

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Mat 16:6

Where do you get your numbers??

Actually the S&P 500 index is only trading at a P/E of 14.7. Don't just look at a few select companies. (Not 50 - not even close)

S&P 500 Index (SPX ) - Quote

As compared to an average of... something between 15-20 according to this chart. (Not 12 - notice that the article specifically states "...are an estimate only and take us down to 12 - which is without an argument a very low P/E Ratio")

S&P P/E Ratio Is Low, But Has Been Lower -- Seeking Alpha

Yeah... look at that slide. What are we gonna do??

S&P 500 1 year chart

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Happy WORD searching!

"It is more blessed to give than to recieve"-Acts 20:35

He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose! -Jim Elliot

It's all about Jesus!!!!
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Growth is GDP. That's other countries buying domestic goods. They don't contradict. However, in the long run unemployment will need to fall so that the level of production can be sustained or, hopefully, increased.

I'm not an economic expert, but I think that most recoveries are jobless at first. The logic seems sound to me.

A collapse occurs, and to stay profitable or to just stay alive, companies begin laying people off. Eventually the recession hits the bottom, and begins to move back up with positive GDP growth. Companies are still trying to be more profitable, and so are either laying people off or simply reducing hiring. Once the recovery becomes sustained enough, companies start hiring more and more. Think of it as two curves that look identical, except the jobs curve lags behind the financial curve.

There was no "they" or "criminals" that caused the recession. Americans across the country bought houses they couldn't afford and racked up credit card debt that they couldn't take care of.

Certainly there were people in power doing stupid and inappropriate things, but let's not use them as scapegoats. Certain financial things need to be regulated, but more importantly, people need to learn not to spend money they don't have.

A few companies like Amazon have high P/Es. In a company like Amazon that is growing like wildfire, the earnings multiple is so high because people expect the growth to continue and their share prices to be reasonably valued within a few years. Judging how high is reasonable is not something I can do, so I don't buy companies like Amazon.

Other companies have high earnings multiples because they are cyclic and have virtually nonexistent profit on a temporary basis. When it comes to extreme cyclicals, one needs to purchase when the P/E looks high and sell when it looks low, in order to try to ride the valuation wave and make money. Let's say a company ships things, and looking back in history, we can see that the share price goes up and down in value like a sine wave, but with each peak being higher than the last due to real organic growth. Unlike more stable companies, this type of company will be hit hard during a recession, and will either have losses or low profits. People that know the history of the company, and expect it to continue on in the future like it always has, will purchase the shares during the low point because they expect that within a few years, the earnings will greatly increase like they always do. So the P/E is deceptively high during the low period because investors are taking into account what they expect to happen in the next few years. It's still risky, though, because if something dramatically changes and the company doesn't continue on like it always has, you can loose a lot of money.

None of the companies in my portfolio have an earnings multiple anywhere near those levels. I prefer companies that have continuously grown through the recession, or have been impacted lightly, and are reasonably valued. It's unwise, at least in my young opinion, to look at broader market conditions of "undervalued" or "overvalued" instead of focusing on individual companies that are around and determining whether they are valued appropriately or not on their own individual basis. I don't care that much what the overall market does, because my companies are profitable, growing, and well-managed, and I bought them at reasonable valuations.

-Lyn

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In law there is a thing called 'predatory lending'. It occurs when a person who should be trusted as an 'expert' - say your bank manager, or finance broker - gives you advice based on their 'superior understanding' that you trust, and based on this advice you borrow money - it doesn't matter why or how - and later find out that the 'advice' that you were given was not only wrong, but was deliberately designed to rip you off at their expense.

This was the practice in the financial markets from top to bottom, and finally reached it's climax when Mr and Mrs Unemployed were told to borrow $500,000 to buy a house and wait for the market to increase by 20% in a year and then sell the house for a profit. This is criminal activity regardless of how you try to justify it. In a moral world people who pose as 'experts' become legally liable for their advice, and are responsible for the impact it has on others. A doctor is responsible for giving quack advice, and a banker should be responsible when they sell derivatives that are sold as 'sound investments' when they are backed by Mr and Mrs Unempoyed's ability to repay a $500,000 loan. This is the system that is now collapsing. And it is this system that sits behind the 'value' of the asset based markets, including ultimately the stock market.

It's the unpayable debt that is in the process of destroying all asset-based markets, and regardless of the timing, it is inevitable.

Whether it's governments, businesses or households it's the debt that will finally drag this puppy under. It's the debt! It's the debt!

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Mat 16:6