Dow predictions; 3/3/2009

Dang, I thought I made a prediction on here... All I did was talk about a two day trend. Oh well.

I see, in early May that we were in a "suckers rally". Hummm, them suckers seem to still be rallying. I've been largely in it.

But as for predictions, we will cross 10,000 before the end of December 2009. (but that seems pretty obvious, right?)

The end of 2010 is trickier but I'll hang my hat on 12,000 by then.

The thing about a bull run is that it is a leading indicator, not a trailing on. If you wait to see what is really happening in a company or in the economy as a whole, you will miss the big up moves because they happen on anticipation, not on revelation.

So all you pessimists need to start warning us about the next big thing that will wreck the economy and make us wish we had bought guns and fallout shelters and what-not.

This ones over.

"this one's over"

From a market perspective, I mean. (obviously)

Or maybe even by mid October. <grin>

Personally I think the market is way ahead of any real recovery, so it will fall back. Consumers are the driving force of our economy and they are out of the game but to fall to that level would be a real economy disaster. One in which guns will be the new form of currency.

Yeah, you are right on TG. It is a leading indicator of recovery. It will fall back, and go up again, and fall back... because that's what it always does. But the general trend will be up for a while. The thing is, if you wait for the consumer to be back, and all the cash on the sidelines to be back in the market, then you will be buying at a high and not at a low point. The market alwasy leads.

But I also think recovery is on the way. Maybe not "real" recovery, but real enough to be a boon for a few years. Then there will be another bust and it will be "worst in history since 29", etc.

The Dow has been over 10,000 for several weeks now, inching towards 11.000 which we might see by the end of the year.

__________________
- Daisy

If such people were amenable to facts, they would have gotten the point long ago...Whatever it is that is blocking the understanding of the "denialist", it is not access to facts or information. The blockage is most likely emotional, possibly based on fear, and one does not most effectively deal with emotional barriers by using facts as instruments of assault and battery. - Dan Murphy

Update on “Dow Predictions”

Below is a few of those that missed the 2009 prediction by a whole lot. However, I want to give everybody a chance at the year 2011. So at the end of this post I will be giving my 2011 prediction and I invite you all to give yours
Wheristhetruth
Some people have insane-optimism syndrome. Where is the recovery going to come from? What is going to halt the collapse?

wpiman
Dow predictions; 3/3/2009
5400 in October

Joachim
Below 6,000 by the end of the month
Below 5,000 by the end of June.
Below 4,000 by January 1st.
Between 2,000 and 3,200 by the middle of next year.





Breakaway Republic
NO short term [1-3 months] prediction.
Long term prediction : Total collapse before December 25th.



The Nihilist
We're basically doomed.



December 31, 2009 DOW CLOSE 10,423
Ref: www.Market Watch.com


Sdmsanjose’s 2009 prediction”
Between July and December 2009, Dow = 9,000




Sdmsanjose’s 2011 prediction
December 2011 Dow = 11,500

Note:
I think there will be a correction between January and July that will be between 10-15%. However I do believe that the final year will have an increase


What are your prediction for 2011?

Dow ended about 10,550.

Did the Stimulus plan save the economy from the predicted collapse?

__________________
- Daisy

If such people were amenable to facts, they would have gotten the point long ago...Whatever it is that is blocking the understanding of the "denialist", it is not access to facts or information. The blockage is most likely emotional, possibly based on fear, and one does not most effectively deal with emotional barriers by using facts as instruments of assault and battery. - Dan Murphy

That remains to be seen. Can't say it did or didn't yet.

The stock market is not the economy (and vice versa). Just because the stock market has rallied does not mean the ecomony has - although historically, the market is a good forward indicator for the economy (ie. the market is predicting that the economy will get better soon).

The stock market has rebounded quite nicely though to a low but reasonable level. The 6000 level was overcompensation for fear - some of the earlier posts in this thread show that. Ironically, this thread started about a week before the market bottomed out. I thought that was ironic

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I know the stock market is not the economy (and vice versa). Fears that the world economy is on the verge of collapse have been quelled (yes, for the time being).

__________________
- Daisy

If such people were amenable to facts, they would have gotten the point long ago...Whatever it is that is blocking the understanding of the "denialist", it is not access to facts or information. The blockage is most likely emotional, possibly based on fear, and one does not most effectively deal with emotional barriers by using facts as instruments of assault and battery. - Dan Murphy