Dow predictions; 3/3/2009

Dang, I thought I made a prediction on here... All I did was talk about a two day trend. Oh well.

I see, in early May that we were in a "suckers rally". Hummm, them suckers seem to still be rallying. I've been largely in it.

But as for predictions, we will cross 10,000 before the end of December 2009. (but that seems pretty obvious, right?)

The end of 2010 is trickier but I'll hang my hat on 12,000 by then.

The thing about a bull run is that it is a leading indicator, not a trailing on. If you wait to see what is really happening in a company or in the economy as a whole, you will miss the big up moves because they happen on anticipation, not on revelation.

So all you pessimists need to start warning us about the next big thing that will wreck the economy and make us wish we had bought guns and fallout shelters and what-not.

This ones over.

"this one's over"

From a market perspective, I mean. (obviously)

Or maybe even by mid October. <grin>

Personally I think the market is way ahead of any real recovery, so it will fall back. Consumers are the driving force of our economy and they are out of the game but to fall to that level would be a real economy disaster. One in which guns will be the new form of currency.

Yeah, you are right on TG. It is a leading indicator of recovery. It will fall back, and go up again, and fall back... because that's what it always does. But the general trend will be up for a while. The thing is, if you wait for the consumer to be back, and all the cash on the sidelines to be back in the market, then you will be buying at a high and not at a low point. The market alwasy leads.

But I also think recovery is on the way. Maybe not "real" recovery, but real enough to be a boon for a few years. Then there will be another bust and it will be "worst in history since 29", etc.