One Question With AA

Why is it that Alcoholics Anonymous only has a success rate of 5%? Meaning that only one in twenty people who go to AA will actually stop their drinking.

Just wondering...

I'd like to know your source for that figure; and how it was arrived at. (Especially over how long a period of observation and measurement.)

This article

orange-papers.org/orange-effectiveness.html

Thanks.
The problem I have here is that though much research is cited in the article, the statement that the AA effectiveness rate is only 10-15% is the suthor's own and is not substantiated. It is almost certainly true that between many and most alcoholics do not get sober on their first, or first few, tries with AA. They drop out, resume drinking, and (in many cases) return, sometimes more than once.
Keep in mind that AA is anonymous. That means that each time a person comes and goes from AA and resumes drinking, he or she has "failed," even when finally (and for many of the reasons listed in the article) they return and stay sober. If John drops out of AA four times and returns and stays sober on the fifth, a statistician sees an 80% failure rate. We AA's see a 100% success rate!
Fact is, nobody knows the success rate of AA judged by either measure; but Orange's 5% strikes me as his personal conclusion. And any estimate I gave would be mine. However, even if Orange is correct, that is a 5% success rate over 73 years and, given the tens of millions who have resorted to AA worldwide, that's quite a number.

Statistical studies of AA are difficult due to the anonymity of the program. People do not sign up and stay, some come and go, others come and stay.

I did a lot of research in graduate school, and what was found to be effective in helping people achieve abstinence from alcohol was the support of other people. AA offers that. Another thing that helps is to change one's cognitive distortions. AA's 12 Steps offer that as well.

If you have a problem with alcohol, instead of looking for the negatives, try examining the 12 steps and see if they align with scriptures and do them.

God bless.
Trish

__________________
Seek always to do some good, somewhere. Every man has to seek in his own way to realize his true worth. You must give some time to your fellow man. For remember, you don't live in a world all your own. Your brothers are here too.
Albert Schweitzer

Unfortunately I do believe that the current recovery rate in AA is very low. But that is not because the 12 steps do not work, it is because few people apply the 12 steps thoroughly and honestly. It's like buying bought a bottle of aspirin and never taking the aspirin. Many people who attend AA meetings, never even try to apply the solution, but they say that AA doesn't work.

You are so right on this one. Attendance at meetings is not the solution, but many just go to meetings for the sake of going. Meetings help me learn the 12 steps, and I must apply them if I hope to experience the spiritual transformation that will help me stay sober.

Thanks,
Trish

__________________
Seek always to do some good, somewhere. Every man has to seek in his own way to realize his true worth. You must give some time to your fellow man. For remember, you don't live in a world all your own. Your brothers are here too.
Albert Schweitzer

Yes, but again. If a statistician sees four failures and one success, he sees an 80% failure rate. We, who know it's the same guy or gal finally "getting it" the fifth time 'round, see a 100% success rate.
Of course, in real life the person has probably skipped between groups each time, or taken a few geographics. We don't see the final success. I won't say things are all that good; but I expect they're better than they look.

When I went through rehab, we were told that maybe 1 in a hundred would make it. I looked around the room and was shocked to realize that meant NONE of us might make it. I've wondered if it was a scare tactic. Anyway, the first time in rehab, I'm one of the ones that didn't succeed. I relapsed. I was fortunate that I had another opportunity to quit. So far, I'm clean and sober, but that is just for today. I am one drink away.

Since my earlier recovery, I have decided not to focus on the success rate. Rather, I focus on my recovery and being available to newcomers and other sick and suffering souls.

If AA fails, it is not as an organization nor as a program. It is as an individual AA who is not applying the program to their life.

Part of AA is calling someone, from AA, before you take a drink of alcohol. I wonder what the success rate is for people who go by that and other AA instructions. I suspect people who go back to drinking are like people who get hit by cars crossing the street. If you don't look both ways its bound to happen. Does that mean looking both ways before crossing the street doesn't work?

"It works if you work it."