The Sun is shutting down , is another LIA coming ?

Greatcloud · #**351** 18th May 2010, 06:34 AM

Chalnoth you're a proponent of AGW , what do you see for the future ? Say in 10 years how much warming do you guess will be happening ? Give me an estimated figure.

Chalnoth · #**352** 18th May 2010, 08:14 AM

Originally Posted by Greatcloud

Chalnoth you're a proponent of AGW , what do you see for the future ? Say in 10 years how much warming do you guess will be happening ? Give me an estimated figure.

In ten years, the error bars are huge, due to the strength of short-term variations. However, very roughly, we should expect another ~0.12C of warming globally. The sea ice should also continue to collapse, and there's a distinct possibility (though definitely not a certainty, not yet) of one nearly ice-free summer in the arctic near the end of this time.

Chalnoth · #**353** 7th June 2011, 01:13 PM

Well, just saw a blog post over at Phil Plait's Bad Astronomy that reminded me of this thread, so I thought I'd engage in a little bit of necromancy. The post can be found here. In the post, he linked a video he prepared using Helioviewer:

YouTube - ‪HUGE explosion on the Sun on June 7, 2011‬&rlm;

(Watch in high definition for the full impact)

And the Sun is only starting to heat up.

As for global temperatures, it's looking like my prediction of a short-term drop in temperatures is being borne out. I don't have any pretty plots, but you can see some of the more recent monthly temperature anomalies here:
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/te...crutem3vgl.txt

Note that the temperatures for the second half of 2010 and the first half of 2011 are noticeably lower than the first half of 2010. This is no surprise, because the first half of 2010 had anomalously high temperatures. The rest of 2011 is likely to remain fairly mild (although still far above previous average temperatures).