Rise of the Saudis

mindlight · May 23, 2015

http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/13/news/economy/military-spending-saudi-arabia/

The Saudi military budget is now the 4th largest in the world. It is ahead of the French and the British. They now spend some 10% of GNP on defence. Many of these weopans are supplied by the British.

1) Part of this is to do with a falling out with Obama and a decision to go it alone rather than rely on American power.
2) Part of this is the perceived threat of Iran and also the possibility of a Shiite regime in Yemen
3) With a growing population and the recent success of the Arab Spring in deposing various regimes across the Arab world the Saudi Royal family perceive a strong military as as a guarantor of their own security.

There is even some talk of the Saudis developing the nuclear bomb to counter an Iranian bomb posing the possibility of a Middle Eastern arms race!

http://nypost.com/2015/05/17/saudi-arabia-to-buy-nuclear-bombs-from-pakistan-report/

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/Middle_East/article1557090.ece

1) What are the implications of the rise of Saudi power in the Middle East and beyond?
2) Are the Saudis part of the answer to the problems of the region or a source of its problems?
3) How should the West respond to the growing power of the Saudis in the region?

High Fidelity · May 23, 2015

I think it's about time regional powers took more responsibility. A welcome change.

mindlight · May 23, 2015

Patrick Bateman said:
I think it's about time regional powers took more responsibility. A welcome change.

Surely that depends on the character with which they exercise power.

If the Saudis encouraged the growth of ISIS as a way of breaking a Shia dominated Iraq and in Syria as a way of breaking the links that exist between Assad and Iran then they are responsible for a lot of evil.

In Yemen the people seem genuinely unhappy with the Saudi backed regime.

Does it matter to the West if a regime is Shia or Sunni? To the saudis it is a matter of life and death and they will commit all sorts of evil to ensure that their will is done.

Gene2memE · May 27, 2015

You're ignoring some historical and geopolitical realities in the opening post.

1 Saudi Arabia has historically spent a very large proportion of its GDP on military expenditure. Betwen1988 and 2014, military spending averaged 10.3% of Saudi GDP. Current expenditures are therefore a reversion to historical norms, rather than anything unusual.

As a proportion of GDP, spending hit a high point in 1998, at about 14.3%. It declined from that point onwards to about 7.5-9% through the 2000s, reaching a 30-year low in 2011 of 7.2%, before climbing up to current levels.

Total defence and security spending is about 34%. This matches total spending as a proportion of the budget through the 1990 and 200s, and is a 3-4% bump from the early 2010s.

2. Saudi military spending is not just on the military. It also includes some domestic security, policing and counter-intelligence spending. Saudi Arabia also gives a lot of military aid to countries like Egypt and Somalia and trains a lot of other regional militaries

3. Since the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia has decided that it needs to play a more active role in the Middle East. Given the security break-down in a number of near neighbours, I’d argue this is understandable.

4. Saudi Arabia launched a major defence modernisation programme in 2010 and its coming to fruition now. Big defence projects are long-term, so the decisions made in 2010-2012 control the spending in 2015 or beyond.

I’m not defending Saudi Arabia. I find its particular dominant brand of Islam to be particularly distasteful and I think that many of its policies show questionable judgement, at the very least.

I’m just pointing out that 2014-2015 defence spending in the country is nothing unusual.

Armoured · May 27, 2015

4th largest military budget in the world. Still pales in significance when you look at the first 3.

Armoured · May 27, 2015

mindlight said:
Surely that depends on the character with which they exercise power.

If the Saudis encouraged the growth of ISIS as a way of breaking a Shia dominated Iraq and in Syria as a way of breaking the links that exist between Assad and Iran then they are responsible for a lot of evil.

In Yemen the people seem genuinely unhappy with the Saudi backed regime.

Does it matter to the West if a regime is Shia or Sunni? To the saudis it is a matter of life and death and they will commit all sorts of evil to ensure that their will is done.

What's your point, exactly? That's what wealthy nations with unstable neighbours typically do.

mindlight · May 27, 2015

Armoured said:
4th largest military budget in the world. Still pales in significance when you look at the first 3.

The Russians in third place are not that far ahead though they do not spend anything like the same % of GNP.

Only the Americans and Chinese dwarf these numbers

mindlight · May 27, 2015

Armoured said:
What's your point, exactly? That's what wealthy nations with unstable neighbours typically do.

The point of the OP is to understand what the growth of Saudi power means to the region and to the West and to the Saudis themselves.

Differentiating between legitimate national interest and acts of evil is surely a part of that discussion. In the Saudi case it often seems hard to me to differentiate evil from real politik!

mindlight · May 27, 2015

Gene2memE said:
You're ignoring some historical and geopolitical realities in the opening post.

I am here to learn

1 Saudi Arabia has historically spent a very large proportion of its GDP on military expenditure. Betwen1988 and 2014, military spending averaged 10.3% of Saudi GDP. Current expenditures are therefore a reversion to historical norms, rather than anything unusual.

As a proportion of GDP, spending hit a high point in 1998, at about 14.3%. It declined from that point onwards to about 7.5-9% through the 2000s, reaching a 30-year low in 2011 of 7.2%, before climbing up to current levels.

Total defence and security spending is about 34%. This matches total spending as a proportion of the budget through the 1990 and 200s, and is a 3-4% bump from the early 2010s.

Good point - there are a lot of other things the Saudis could be spending this money on but the region itself always seems to present another set of security challenges to disrupt those plans.

2. Saudi military spending is not just on the military. It also includes some domestic security, policing and counter-intelligence spending. Saudi Arabia also gives a lot of military aid to countries like Egypt and Somalia and trains a lot of other regional militaries

3. Since the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia has decided that it needs to play a more active role in the Middle East. Given the security break-down in a number of near neighbours, I’d argue this is understandable.

4. Saudi Arabia launched a major defence modernisation programme in 2010 and its coming to fruition now. Big defence projects are long-term, so the decisions made in 2010-2012 control the spending in 2015 or beyond.

Interesting and it gives some explanation as to why they think they need this extra capability. Basically though the Saudis are Sunnis training Sunnis and that leaves their rival Iran to back the Shias. So is this an escalation of an arms race that eventually has the potential to go nuclear?

I’m not defending Saudi Arabia. I find its particular dominant brand of Islam to be particularly distasteful and I think that many of its policies show questionable judgement, at the very least.

I’m just pointing out that 2014-2015 defence spending in the country is nothing unusual.

It would indeed be hard to defend the way they use power. Thanks for the insights and perspective.

Armoured · May 27, 2015

mindlight said:
The Russians in third place are not that far ahead though they do not spend anything like the same % of GNP.

Only the Americans and Chinese dwarf these numbers

So? Isn't that enough?

Armoured · May 27, 2015

mindlight said:
The point of the OP is to understand what the growth of Saudi power means to the region and to the West and to the Saudis themselves.

Differentiating between legitimate national interest and acts of evil is surely a part of that discussion. In the Saudi case it often seems hard to me to differentiate evil from real politik!

Soooo... name a country with a powerful military where that isn't the case?

Douger · Jul 11, 2015

While they have a very impressive military budget, I wonder what that translates to in terms of actual defensive capabilities much less force projection.
If some group of mad as hell, battle hardened Shias from one of the countries that Saudi Arabia has helped to turn into a hell hole were to invade, I think the Saudi ground forces would melt and the Saudis would have nothing for defense other than air strikes and hiring poor foreigners to drive suicide trucks towards the invaders.

mindlight · Jul 12, 2015

Douger said:
While they have a very impressive military budget, I wonder what that translates to in terms of actual defensive capabilities much less force projection.
If some group of mad as hell, battle hardened Shias from one of the countries that Saudi Arabia has helped to turn into a hell hole were to invade, I think the Saudi ground forces would melt and the Saudis would have nothing for defense other than air strikes and hiring poor foreigners to drive suicide trucks towards the invaders.

Yes i think there is a cultural factor in military effectiveness. Arab armies generally have a poor record outside of terrorist activity. The Arab culture may well be a factor though I should imagine most politically correct analysts are barred from saying so. A retired US colonel who spent a lot of time in the Middle East more than a decade ago made the following criticism which still seems pertinent:

"over-centralization, discouraging initiative, lack of flexibility, manipulation of information, and the discouragement of leadership at the junior officer level."

http://www.meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars

Viren · Jul 24, 2015

The Saudi GDP has grown from high oil prices in recent years. So even though the military budget is still near the historic average of 10% their GDP is a lot more than in the past.

kit · Jul 26, 2015

The problem is that ISIS is inspired by Saudi Wahabism. The Saudis has spent a century building up a philosophy that is appalling. It is paying for the warping of all other Sunni schools in all other countries. Indirectly we have been paying for this at the gas pumps. The Twelver Shiism of Iran is comparatively reasonable. Americans bumble and stumble through this conflict without ever thinking rationally about our actions and their consequenses.

mindlight · Jul 27, 2015

kit said:
The problem is that ISIS is inspired by Saudi Wahabism. The Saudis has spent a century building up a philosophy that is appalling. It is paying for the warping of all other Sunni schools in all other countries. Indirectly we have been paying for this at the gas pumps. The Twelver Shiism of Iran is comparatively reasonable. Americans bumble and stumble through this conflict without ever thinking rationally about our actions and their consequenses.

Well now that Obama has removed sanctions from Iran Iranian revenues will rise accordingly. At the moment irans defence spending is about 10% of that of the Gulf states but that gap will close. This may also mean increased subsidies to anti Saudi Shia rebels in Yemen and extra cash to finance secret nuke and missile programmes. I am sure the Saudis are a little peeved and I wonder if some of their extra cash will go towards a nuclear bomb programme of their own.

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