Orthodoxy and Global Warming

Knee V

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ice in Antarctica is increasing

Indeed. And the pictures that we see of ice breaking off into the water in Antarctica is due to the ice growing and getting too large and breaking off due to its own weight, not due to melting.
 
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Gnarwhal

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Indeed. And the pictures that we see of ice breaking off into the water in Antarctica is due to the ice growing and getting too large and breaking off due to its own weight, not due to melting.

I'm not 100% sure that's true. My older sister went on a couple different expeditions down to Antarctica in the early 2000's, I'll double check my facts but I think she told me that global warming was indeed having an impact on the amount of ice down there... So I'll get back to everyone on that. :p
 
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Thekla

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That's interesting !
I went hunting, and found this fwiw:
Scientists have thought a lot about this question.

Unlike the Arctic, Antarctica is surrounding by water, so its less responsive to changes in air temperatures. Its climate is more governed by wind and ocean currents. Paradoxically, the ozone hole also may play a role in keeping Antarctica cool, scientists say.

Interestingly, climate models have generally predicted that Antarctic sea ice won’t change much in the coming decades, before eventually losing mass.

Only recently have scientists begun to understand why, in part due to research by Judith Curry among other. In a 2010 paper (see abstract) in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Curry said the answer is tied up in a combination of natural variability and global warming. (By the way, skeptics, before you dismiss Curry you’d do well to understand that she’s a harsh critic of the IPCC.)

Here’s a deeper explanation of what she found, based upon an interview I conducted with her:

So give me a non-sound bite answer.

Sea ice can melt from both above and below, either heating from the ocean below or the atmosphere above. In the case of the Arctic most of the melting is driven from the warmer atmosphere above. In the Antarctic most of the melting has been driven from the ocean below. What our study has identified is that there’s been increased precipitation over the last few decades that has freshened the upper ocean, which makes it more stable so the heat below doesn’t make it up to the sea ice to melt it.

Freshens the upper ocean?

It decreases the saltiness. When you have a fresh layer on top that’s less dense it acts as a barrier to prevent the mixing of warmer water from below. It insulates the ice to some extent. We’ve also seen a big role of natural variability, over the past 30 years or so the dominant climate signal has been from the Antarctic Oscillation rather than from global warming. The net effect of all this has been an increase in precipitation, mostly snow. This diminishes the melting both from below and above. It stops the melting from above because snow has a higher albedo and reflects more sunlight.

At some point does this result in a net loss of ice rather than gains?

What happens in the 21st century projections is that the global warming signal begins to dominate. We still have the freshening of the upper ocean, but the upper ocean is getting warmer because of a warmer atmosphere. And the precipitation starts to fall more as rain than snow. Rain falling on ice speeds the melting from above.

The bottom line is that scientists generally have predicted that the Antarctic sea ice will not begin substantially melting until the second half of this century.
Does the expanding Antarctic sea ice disprove global warming? | SciGuy | a Chron.com blog

And this, from NASA:
416685main_20100108_Climate_1.jpg


NASA - Is Antarctica Melting?
 
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Protoevangel

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I do believe in Global Warming...and the principal culprit behind it walks on two legs and isn't a primate
Wonder who it migh be then, since homo sapiens are in the order primate.
 
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Dorothea

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gzt

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I didn't want to get into a debate in any way, but I just wanted to note that the Antarctic sea ice maximum was the maximum for a a single day in recorded history and was for sea ice only. The order of magnitude of the maximum was a minor blip (whereas the arctic minimum was a global minimum and was significantly below any previous observation). The forces governing Antarctic sea ice are a bit more complicated than those governing the Arctic (which are already fairly complex!) because, for one thing, the sea ice is coming off of the large Antarctic land mass which is covered up to two miles thick with ice, whereas there is no land mass at the North Pole. While sea ice extent alone is a pretty decent proxy for what's going on in the Arctic, it is far less informative when you look at Antarctica. As somebody pointed out, Antarctica is losing a lot of mass in its ice sheets. This is far more important, and it's far more consistent. As for the rest, sure, believe what you like.
 
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MariaRegina

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I do believe in Global Warming...and the principal culprit behind it walks on two legs and isn't a primate

What about solar warming due to our sun and to our position in the galaxy and universe? The Mayans were quite advanced and their predictions quite accurate. We are in a different area of the universe where there is more intense radiation. With our sun undergoing this intense SOLAR MAXIMUM, we are seeing M-Flares and X-Flares that is causing intense radiation upon the earth.

To blame global warming solely on humans is ludicrous. The sun and our position in the universe are playing a major role. In addition, our earth is acting weird with the formation of new volcanoes under the ocean causing global warming from all the venting. Scientists cannot do much about stopping volcanic activity. Look at the Hawaiian volcano! It is much more active this year than last. Look at all the earthquakes in the Rim of Fire in the Pacific Basin. Seismic activity has been increasing as the magma rises to the surface. We are due for several big earthquakes.

Could there be a link between increasing seismic activity and solar maximums? According to Jim Berkland, there is a correlation between high tides, the moon, and earthquakes. SyzygyJob - Home
 
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ArmyMatt

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personally, from friends who know way more on this than I do, I think it's primarily natural with the sun flaring more than normal and whatnot, but then I think we humans definitely add to the mix in ways we shouldn't, and increase any problems.

but I am by far no expert.
 
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I hear it is caused from a near collision with the Planet Kolob. Mitt Romney's narrow loss has exacerbated the orbital approach angular vectors to disturbing levels. Collision could be imminent!

personally, from friends who know way more on this than I do, I think it's primarily natural with the sun flaring more than normal and whatnot, but then I think we humans definitely add to the mix in ways we shouldn't, and increase any problems.

but I am by far no expert.
 
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Knee V

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I hear it is caused from a near collision with the Planet Kolob. Mitt Romney's narrow loss has exacerbated the orbital approach angular vectors to disturbing levels. Collision could be imminent!

No. I'm pretty sure it's caused by gay marriage and welfare.
 
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MariaRegina

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There is indication that increased seismic activity is the result of global warming:
Seismic activity linked to global warming - ClimateDebateDaily.Org

Reading several of the cited references, there was no mention that human activity was involved although it is true that the CORE of the Earth is somehow perhaps unstable causing increasing waves of hot magma to rise to the surface in the form of volcanic activity both underwater and above ground. Increased seismic activity is the result of volcanic activity -- that is a proven fact. The rise in magma causes increased seismic activity and the global heating of the Pacific waters, and that is seen in the Rim of the Pacific from Russia and Japan through Australia across the Pacific to South America and then up the coast to Alaska. There have been increasing incidents of tropical fish caught off the coast of California because of increasing water temperatures.

There is increased seismic activity also in the Atlantic Ocean. Witness the serious aviation threat posed by Greenland volcanic activity that has caused delays in transatlantic flights from Europe to the USA and vice versa.

Ultimately, we have had increasing seismic activity in this period (window) of SOLAR MAXIMUM, high tides, full moon, and the position where we are in the universe. All off these events are causing abnormal stresses and pulls on the earth. Witness the events in this past month with huge earthquakes in Indonesia, Alaska, Guatemala, and just off the coast of Canada.
 
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buzuxi02

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no, global warming. it's always his fault. along with the Crusades, the destruction of Alderaan, and the poor security in Arkham


Well, why not make it more general and just blame America. Afterall Ahmedinijad once remarked that America is to blame for all the problems in the Middle East for the last 1500 years, or was it the last 2500 years?

That global warming is causing seismic activity is laughable. Theres some evidence that minor seismic activity can occur from fracking and the like, but not because it rains more in one area and less in another.
 
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