- Mar 22, 2011
- 8,460
- 5,268
- Country
- United States
- Faith
- Christian
- Marital Status
- Private
- Politics
- US-Others
There's a new factor that's skewing the polls - early voting. People who say they have already voted are counted in 'likely voter" polls. That would seem to make sense, but there is a human dynamic whereby some people answer polls according to what they think others want to hear. Some people say they are likely do vote but do not, and now some people say they already have but have not.
Now couple that dynamic with the Dems' big push for early voting (while the GOP continues to stress traditional election day voting). You can see that a new misleading dynamic has been introduced. Some Dems are going to say they already have voted, because they think that's what's expected of them, but they haven't, and maybe will not.
This is particularly true in Ohio, a state which has a lot of people scratching their heads. Romney's metrics are increasing, and dramatically so among independents, and yet Obama maintains his lead in the polls. Some have said that Ohio is defying gravity.
But if the above dynamic is the cause, and if there really is an enthusiasm gap that favors Romney, then the artificial voted early numbers are going to fade to gray on election day.
The problem is that this dynamic is so new that no one, at least among public pollsters, knows how to deal with it yet. They have to find questions that qualify the answers of those who claim to have already voted.
For more on this, see Josh Jordan's very insightful NRO article.
Now couple that dynamic with the Dems' big push for early voting (while the GOP continues to stress traditional election day voting). You can see that a new misleading dynamic has been introduced. Some Dems are going to say they already have voted, because they think that's what's expected of them, but they haven't, and maybe will not.
This is particularly true in Ohio, a state which has a lot of people scratching their heads. Romney's metrics are increasing, and dramatically so among independents, and yet Obama maintains his lead in the polls. Some have said that Ohio is defying gravity.
But if the above dynamic is the cause, and if there really is an enthusiasm gap that favors Romney, then the artificial voted early numbers are going to fade to gray on election day.
The problem is that this dynamic is so new that no one, at least among public pollsters, knows how to deal with it yet. They have to find questions that qualify the answers of those who claim to have already voted.
For more on this, see Josh Jordan's very insightful NRO article.
