- Mar 4, 2004
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I believe life is the product of intelligent design, not random chance. There are irreconcilable problems with evolution at every discrete stage, from Big Bang to the development of the human brain. In my personal view, the most compelling evidence against evolution is the low probability of the first cell evolving from chance (abiogenesis). Its so damaging that there should be countless articles on the topic and whole research centers devoted to it, and yet there is not. The Institute of Creation Research estimated the probability as 1 / (1*10^4,478,296). Evolutionists have tried to rebut ICRs study by making de minimis assumptions without running the resulting numbers. For example, Dr. Frank Drake simply put the probability at 100% and moved on. In this study, I adopt every reasonable assumption an evolutionist could make that I am aware of, and run the model to calculate the probability. My result is that the probability of a single cell evolving under extremely favorable assumptions is less than 1 / (1*10^7500), making evolution impossible under reasonably and unreasonably conceivable circumstances. If there are only three possibilities for the origin of lifechance, aliens, and God, this study removes 2 of the 3 possibilities and proves the existence of God beyond a reasonable doubt.
Favorable Assumptions
In this study, I make extremely favorable assumptions in favor of evolution. I assume perfect unities of time and spaceperhaps a single infinitesimally small spec where all these pieces of something intermingle at lightning speed. It does no good for half a life form to coalesce when the other half is 5 feet away. TalkOrigins added fictitious bacteria precursors called "replicating polymers," "hypercycles," and "protobionts" to give more intermediate steps between random and a self-sufficient cell. I have added 15 intermediate steps to make it easier for evolution. Also, the smallest discovered cell (phytoplasma) is comprised of about 33 billion atoms. NASAs smallest theoretically conceivable exobiological cell would have about 260 million atoms ((6.022E23 atoms/mole) * (1 mole/ 18 grams of H2O) * (1 gram/cm^3) * (.00002 cm)^3 = 267,644,444 H2O molecules per bacteria). To be phenomenally generous, Ive reduce the number of atoms, or parts, to a mere 50,000. To eliminate the complexity of biochemistry, which is intensely damaging to evolution and results in numbers closer to the ICR figure, I assume parts of anything, which could be binary code for sentient software, plasma on the surface of a sun, subatomic particles, etc. rather than atoms, sugars, amino acids, proteins, DNA, etc. I also give each part a 50% chance of creating a favorable reaction each time they interact with each other. In real life, hydrocarbon reactions like to form CO2 and H2O, not long-chain hydrocarbons like sugar, amino acids, and proteins. Thats why evolutionists are so intent on finding evidence for a non-oxygen atmosphere 2 billion years ago, despite evidence that ranges from very sketchy to non-existent. But my 50% favorable reaction assumption resolves this debate, such as it is, in favor of evolution. Another highly favorable assumption is that when the atoms coalesce to form a cell, the cell becomes alive. The reality is not Frankensteins monsterlife forms dont become alive by being shocked with electricity. They have an ineffable quality that science does not yet understand, a kind of biological software, but which I disregard in this analysis. Also, chemical catalysts are not alivewe have to keep ourselves in reality rather than coming up with unusual definitions of life. Regardless, those precursors themselves would have more than 50,000 parts, and that assumption is given to evolutionists.
So, assuming 50,000 parts combining in a specific way to result in life, which can be anything from subatomic particles to computer bits to atoms, and assuming interactions with 50% favorable results, and assuming that every unit can combine in parallel to increase the odds of success, the probability can be modeled as follows:
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E25000) = 1/ 1.78^7526.
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E12500)= 1/ 1.33^3763
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E6250)= 1/ 3.65^1882
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E3125)= 1/ 1.91^941
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E1563)= 1/ 3.09^471
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E781)= 1/ 7.86^236
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E390)= 1/ 3.96^118
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E195)= 1/ 1.99^59
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E98)= 1/ 3.15^30
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E49)= 1/ 1.77^15
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E24)= 1/ 5.9^8
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E12)= 1/ 24,400
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E6)= 1/156
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3)= 1/8
P(E1) * P(E2)= 1/4
P(E1)= ½
Adding up those numbers is beyond my computer power, so arbitrarily, lets cut the probability drastically and call it 1 chance in 10^7500. The ICR article I linked above says the highest standard of impossibility in scientific literature by which a event is considered totally impossible to occur is 1 chance in 10^150. Conclusion: non-guided evolution is impossible. If you disagree, I invite you to share your conclusions, but I respectfully ask you to run the math and provide me with your number.
What about Aliens?
Assuming that aliens seeded our planet or made evolution happen begs the question of how the aliens themselves came to be. Keep in mind that there are less than 10^100 subatomic particles in the entire universe out to 14 billion light years. If you believe in parallel universes, string theory, and interuniversal travel, lets add in a trillion trillion extra universes (10^24), and lets assume each universe has a density of 1 g/cm^3 (our universe has a density of (9.9 × 10-30 g/cm^3) with interacting subatomic particles, such that the interaction could create any kind of arbitrary alien life form imaginable (with 50,000 parts or more). That increases the number of parts available to interact to about 10^154. So subtract 154 from my number above. Lets give such alien life forms a trillion trillion years to form and give each particle a million interactions per year. Subtract 30. Lets assume that a million combinations of those 50,000 parts would result in a functional life form. Subtract 6. 7500-154-30-6 = 7310. 1 / (1*10^7310) is still impossible.
What if God guided evolution?
That is essentially a theological debate with a different set of logical rules. The Bible doesnt say God created us with evolution, and a lot of atheists have pointed out the fallacy of that argument on recent threads (e.g. when did original sin happen?). If you choose to believe in God, its helpful to pick an established, internally coherent and consistent religion that can reasonably claim to have received messages from God. Christianity is such a religion. Here's a recent thread of mine regarding affirmative proof of God and Jesus Christ. Many Christians today have heard from God. I know at least two people who have heard his audible voice. I can introduce you to such people who Im sure youll find credible.
My meager ability to reason tells me that even a simple shovel couldn't form from random chance--how would such a marvelous bacteria form? I can only give credit to God.
Favorable Assumptions
In this study, I make extremely favorable assumptions in favor of evolution. I assume perfect unities of time and spaceperhaps a single infinitesimally small spec where all these pieces of something intermingle at lightning speed. It does no good for half a life form to coalesce when the other half is 5 feet away. TalkOrigins added fictitious bacteria precursors called "replicating polymers," "hypercycles," and "protobionts" to give more intermediate steps between random and a self-sufficient cell. I have added 15 intermediate steps to make it easier for evolution. Also, the smallest discovered cell (phytoplasma) is comprised of about 33 billion atoms. NASAs smallest theoretically conceivable exobiological cell would have about 260 million atoms ((6.022E23 atoms/mole) * (1 mole/ 18 grams of H2O) * (1 gram/cm^3) * (.00002 cm)^3 = 267,644,444 H2O molecules per bacteria). To be phenomenally generous, Ive reduce the number of atoms, or parts, to a mere 50,000. To eliminate the complexity of biochemistry, which is intensely damaging to evolution and results in numbers closer to the ICR figure, I assume parts of anything, which could be binary code for sentient software, plasma on the surface of a sun, subatomic particles, etc. rather than atoms, sugars, amino acids, proteins, DNA, etc. I also give each part a 50% chance of creating a favorable reaction each time they interact with each other. In real life, hydrocarbon reactions like to form CO2 and H2O, not long-chain hydrocarbons like sugar, amino acids, and proteins. Thats why evolutionists are so intent on finding evidence for a non-oxygen atmosphere 2 billion years ago, despite evidence that ranges from very sketchy to non-existent. But my 50% favorable reaction assumption resolves this debate, such as it is, in favor of evolution. Another highly favorable assumption is that when the atoms coalesce to form a cell, the cell becomes alive. The reality is not Frankensteins monsterlife forms dont become alive by being shocked with electricity. They have an ineffable quality that science does not yet understand, a kind of biological software, but which I disregard in this analysis. Also, chemical catalysts are not alivewe have to keep ourselves in reality rather than coming up with unusual definitions of life. Regardless, those precursors themselves would have more than 50,000 parts, and that assumption is given to evolutionists.
So, assuming 50,000 parts combining in a specific way to result in life, which can be anything from subatomic particles to computer bits to atoms, and assuming interactions with 50% favorable results, and assuming that every unit can combine in parallel to increase the odds of success, the probability can be modeled as follows:
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E25000) = 1/ 1.78^7526.
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E12500)= 1/ 1.33^3763
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E6250)= 1/ 3.65^1882
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E3125)= 1/ 1.91^941
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E1563)= 1/ 3.09^471
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E781)= 1/ 7.86^236
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E390)= 1/ 3.96^118
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E195)= 1/ 1.99^59
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E98)= 1/ 3.15^30
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E49)= 1/ 1.77^15
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E24)= 1/ 5.9^8
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E12)= 1/ 24,400
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3) * ... * P(E6)= 1/156
P(E1) * P(E2) * P(E3)= 1/8
P(E1) * P(E2)= 1/4
P(E1)= ½
Adding up those numbers is beyond my computer power, so arbitrarily, lets cut the probability drastically and call it 1 chance in 10^7500. The ICR article I linked above says the highest standard of impossibility in scientific literature by which a event is considered totally impossible to occur is 1 chance in 10^150. Conclusion: non-guided evolution is impossible. If you disagree, I invite you to share your conclusions, but I respectfully ask you to run the math and provide me with your number.
What about Aliens?
Assuming that aliens seeded our planet or made evolution happen begs the question of how the aliens themselves came to be. Keep in mind that there are less than 10^100 subatomic particles in the entire universe out to 14 billion light years. If you believe in parallel universes, string theory, and interuniversal travel, lets add in a trillion trillion extra universes (10^24), and lets assume each universe has a density of 1 g/cm^3 (our universe has a density of (9.9 × 10-30 g/cm^3) with interacting subatomic particles, such that the interaction could create any kind of arbitrary alien life form imaginable (with 50,000 parts or more). That increases the number of parts available to interact to about 10^154. So subtract 154 from my number above. Lets give such alien life forms a trillion trillion years to form and give each particle a million interactions per year. Subtract 30. Lets assume that a million combinations of those 50,000 parts would result in a functional life form. Subtract 6. 7500-154-30-6 = 7310. 1 / (1*10^7310) is still impossible.
What if God guided evolution?
That is essentially a theological debate with a different set of logical rules. The Bible doesnt say God created us with evolution, and a lot of atheists have pointed out the fallacy of that argument on recent threads (e.g. when did original sin happen?). If you choose to believe in God, its helpful to pick an established, internally coherent and consistent religion that can reasonably claim to have received messages from God. Christianity is such a religion. Here's a recent thread of mine regarding affirmative proof of God and Jesus Christ. Many Christians today have heard from God. I know at least two people who have heard his audible voice. I can introduce you to such people who Im sure youll find credible.
My meager ability to reason tells me that even a simple shovel couldn't form from random chance--how would such a marvelous bacteria form? I can only give credit to God.